Predictions / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Hammarby vs Brommapojkarna W

Prediction Audit: Hammarby vs Brommapojkarna W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hammarby Hammarby
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
2 3.03
0 1.94
xG Accuracy: 44%
Brommapojkarna W Brommapojkarna W

AI correctly predicted the Hammarby win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hammarby Hammarby ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 3-1, 2-1, 3-2, 2-2, 4-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hammarby higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hammarby -14.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hammarby 68.8% 82.9% -14.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 16.0% 11.1% +4.9 pp Aligned
Brommapojkarna W 15.2% 6.0% +9.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Hammarby's win probability at 82.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 68.8%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hammarby win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hammarby than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Hammarby attacking xG significantly stronger (3.03 vs 1.94)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hammarby higher (83.0% vs model 68.8%, 14.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hammarby win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 04, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hammarby 68.8% · Draw 16.0% · Brommapojkarna W 15.2%
    • xG · Hammarby 3.03 — Brommapojkarna W 1.94
  2. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hammarby 1.11 · Draw 8.28 · Brommapojkarna W 15.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Hammarby 82.9% · Draw 11.1% · Brommapojkarna W 6.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Hammarby 1.11 · Draw 8.28 · Brommapojkarna W 15.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Hammarby 82.9% · Draw 11.1% · Brommapojkarna W 6.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 04, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hammarby win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 44/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (124%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11666012

Closing Odds 1.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hammarby win · Hammarby 2–0 Brommapojkarna W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Hammarby vs Brommapojkarna W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Hammarby 3.03 — Brommapojkarna W 1.94 (total xG ≈ 4.97)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 20 18 1 1 55
2 Hammarby 20 16 2 2 50
3 Malmö FF W 20 10 6 4 36
4 AIK 20 10 4 6 34
5 Kristianstad 21 9 5 7 32
6 Vittsjö 21 9 5 7 32
7 Brommapojkarna W 20 9 2 9 29
8 Eskilstuna United 21 8 3 10 27
9 Piteå W 21 6 6 9 24
10 Djurgården 20 6 3 11 21
11 Rosengård W 20 5 5 10 20
12 Växjö 21 5 3 13 18
13 Norrköping W 21 3 8 10 17
14 Uppsala W 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 20 61 13 +48 55
2 Hammarby 20 49 10 +39 50
3 Malmö FF W 20 39 14 +25 36
4 Kristianstad 21 35 32 +3 32
5 Vittsjö 21 29 26 +3 32
6 AIK 20 29 27 +2 34
7 Brommapojkarna W 20 28 34 -6 29
8 Djurgården 20 25 33 -8 21
9 Piteå W 21 24 30 -6 24
10 Växjö 21 23 42 -19 18
11 Rosengård W 20 21 25 -4 20
12 Eskilstuna United 21 18 27 -9 27
13 Norrköping W 21 18 36 -18 17
14 Uppsala W 20 14 64 -50 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 20 2.9 2.2 +0.7 50
2 AIK 20 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 20 — — — 55
4 Malmö FF W 20 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 21 — — — 32
6 Vittsjö 21 — — — 32
7 Brommapojkarna W 20 — — — 29
8 Eskilstuna United 21 — — — 27
9 Piteå W 21 — — — 24
10 Djurgården 20 — — — 21
11 Rosengård W 20 — — — 20
12 Växjö 21 — — — 18
13 Norrköping W 21 — — — 17
14 Uppsala W 20 — — — 6