Predictions / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Piteå W vs AIK

Prediction Audit: Piteå W vs AIK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Piteå W Piteå W
Sep 13, 2026 - 12:00
0 2.64
1 2.47
xG Accuracy: 32%
AIK AIK

The model missed the final outcome (AIK win 0–1).

The model had projected Piteå W at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Piteå W AIK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 3-2, 2-3, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Piteå W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Piteå W +10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Piteå W 43.4% 33.0% +10.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 19.1% 28.9% -9.8 pp Market Higher
AIK 37.5% 38.2% -0.6 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Piteå W's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.0%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was AIK win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Piteå W.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Piteå W by 10.4 percentage points (33.0% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Piteå W 43.4% · Draw 19.1% · AIK 37.5%
    • xG · Piteå W 2.64 — AIK 2.47
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Piteå W 2.78 · Draw 3.17 · AIK 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Piteå W 33.0% · Draw 28.9% · AIK 38.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Piteå W 2.78 · Draw 3.17 · AIK 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Piteå W 33.0% · Draw 28.9% · AIK 38.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result AIK win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 46/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (96%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 16/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7428081

Closing Odds 2.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AIK win · Piteå W 0–1 AIK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Piteå W vs AIK
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Piteå W 2.64 — AIK 2.47 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 20 18 1 1 55
2 Hammarby 20 16 2 2 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 20 10 4 6 34
5 Kristianstad 20 8 5 7 29
6 Vittsjö 20 8 5 7 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 19 6 5 8 23
10 Djurgården 20 6 3 11 21
11 Växjö 20 5 3 12 18
12 Rosengård W 19 4 5 10 17
13 Norrköping W 20 3 7 10 16
14 Uppsala W 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 20 61 13 +48 55
2 Hammarby 20 49 10 +39 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 20 33 32 +1 29
5 AIK 20 29 27 +2 34
6 Vittsjö 20 27 26 +1 29
7 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
8 Djurgården 20 25 33 -8 21
9 Piteå W 19 23 28 -5 23
10 Växjö 20 23 40 -17 18
11 Rosengård W 19 20 25 -5 17
12 Eskilstuna United 20 18 25 -7 27
13 Norrköping W 20 17 35 -18 16
14 Uppsala W 20 14 64 -50 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 20 2.9 2.2 +0.7 50
2 AIK 20 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 20 — — — 55
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 20 — — — 29
6 Vittsjö 20 — — — 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 — — — 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 19 — — — 23
10 Djurgården 20 — — — 21
11 Växjö 20 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 19 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 20 — — — 16
14 Uppsala W 20 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions