Predictions / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Eskilstuna United vs AIK

Prediction Audit: Eskilstuna United vs AIK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eskilstuna United Eskilstuna United
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
1 2.61
1 2.50
xG Accuracy: 42%
AIK AIK

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Eskilstuna United at 42.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Eskilstuna United Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 3-2, 2-3, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Eskilstuna United 42.3% 34.9% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 19.1% 26.6% -7.5 pp Market Higher
AIK 38.5% 38.5% +0.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 26.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 19.1%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Eskilstuna United; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Eskilstuna United by 7.5 percentage points (49.8% vs model 42.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Eskilstuna United 42.4% · Draw 19.2% · AIK 38.5%
    • xG · Eskilstuna United 2.61 — AIK 2.50
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Eskilstuna United 2.63 · Draw 3.44 · AIK 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Eskilstuna United 34.9% · Draw 26.6% · AIK 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Eskilstuna United 2.63 · Draw 3.44 · AIK 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Eskilstuna United 34.9% · Draw 26.6% · AIK 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 63/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (93%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 28/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6142997

Closing Odds 3.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Eskilstuna United 1–1 AIK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Eskilstuna United vs AIK
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Eskilstuna United 2.61 — AIK 2.5 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 20 18 1 1 55
2 Hammarby 20 16 2 2 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 20 10 4 6 34
5 Kristianstad 20 8 5 7 29
6 Vittsjö 20 8 5 7 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 19 6 5 8 23
10 Djurgården 20 6 3 11 21
11 Växjö 20 5 3 12 18
12 Rosengård W 19 4 5 10 17
13 Norrköping W 20 3 7 10 16
14 Uppsala W 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 20 61 13 +48 55
2 Hammarby 20 49 10 +39 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 20 33 32 +1 29
5 AIK 20 29 27 +2 34
6 Vittsjö 20 27 26 +1 29
7 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
8 Djurgården 20 25 33 -8 21
9 Piteå W 19 23 28 -5 23
10 Växjö 20 23 40 -17 18
11 Rosengård W 19 20 25 -5 17
12 Eskilstuna United 20 18 25 -7 27
13 Norrköping W 20 17 35 -18 16
14 Uppsala W 20 14 64 -50 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 20 2.9 2.2 +0.7 50
2 AIK 20 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 20 — — — 55
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 20 — — — 29
6 Vittsjö 20 — — — 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 — — — 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 19 — — — 23
10 Djurgården 20 — — — 21
11 Växjö 20 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 19 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 20 — — — 16
14 Uppsala W 20 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions