Prediction Audit: Malmö FF W vs Hammarby Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Malmö FF W

Aug 21, 2026 - 16:00

1 2.35

1 2.76

xG Accuracy: 42%

Hammarby

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hammarby at 47.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hammarby Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 1-2, 3-2, 1-3 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Malmö FF W	33.5%	30.6%	+2.9 pp	Aligned
Draw	18.9%	26.9%	-8.1 pp	Market Higher
Hammarby	47.6%	42.4%	+5.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 26.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 18.9%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
1X2: model leaned Hammarby; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hammarby by 8.1 percentage points (55.7% vs model 47.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 21, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Malmö FF W 33.5% · Draw 18.9% · Hammarby 47.6%
- xG · Malmö FF W 2.35 — Hammarby 2.76
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Malmö FF W 2.99 · Draw 3.40 · Hammarby 2.16
- Implied 1X2 · Malmö FF W 30.6% · Draw 26.9% · Hammarby 42.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Malmö FF W 2.99 · Draw 3.40 · Hammarby 2.16
- Implied 1X2 · Malmö FF W 30.6% · Draw 26.9% · Hammarby 42.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 63/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pass
High xG deviation from league baseline (104%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 59/100

Betting Confidence 66/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4025718

Closing Odds 3.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Malmö FF W 1–1 Hammarby

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Damallsvenskan
Fixture: Malmö FF W vs Hammarby
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Malmö FF W 2.35 — Hammarby 2.76 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Häcken	20	18	1	1	55
2	Hammarby	20	16	2	2	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	10	6	3	36
4	AIK	20	10	4	6	34
5	Kristianstad	20	8	5	7	29
6	Vittsjö	20	8	5	7	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	8	3	9	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	8	2	9	26
9	Piteå W	19	6	5	8	23
10	Djurgården	20	6	3	11	21
11	Växjö	20	5	3	12	18
12	Rosengård W	19	4	5	10	17
13	Norrköping W	20	3	7	10	16
14	Uppsala W	20	1	3	16	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Häcken	20	61	13	+48	55
2	Hammarby	20	49	10	+39	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	38	11	+27	36
4	Kristianstad	20	33	32	+1	29
5	AIK	20	29	27	+2	34
6	Vittsjö	20	27	26	+1	29
7	Brommapojkarna W	19	25	33	-8	26
8	Djurgården	20	25	33	-8	21
9	Piteå W	19	23	28	-5	23
10	Växjö	20	23	40	-17	18
11	Rosengård W	19	20	25	-5	17
12	Eskilstuna United	20	18	25	-7	27
13	Norrköping W	20	17	35	-18	16
14	Uppsala W	20	14	64	-50	6

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Hammarby	20	2.9	2.2	+0.7	50
2	AIK	20	2.2	2.9	-0.7	34
3	Häcken	20	—	—	—	55
4	Malmö FF W	19	—	—	—	36
5	Kristianstad	20	—	—	—	29
6	Vittsjö	20	—	—	—	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	—	—	—	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	—	—	—	26
9	Piteå W	19	—	—	—	23
10	Djurgården	20	—	—	—	21
11	Växjö	20	—	—	—	18
12	Rosengård W	19	—	—	—	17
13	Norrköping W	20	—	—	—	16
14	Uppsala W	20	—	—	—	6