Predictions / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Hammarby vs Piteå W

Prediction Audit: Hammarby vs Piteå W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hammarby Hammarby
Aug 16, 2026 - 17:00
5 3.03
0 1.96
xG Accuracy: 34%
Piteå W Piteå W

AI correctly predicted the Hammarby win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hammarby Hammarby ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 3-1, 2-1, 3-2, 2-2, 4-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.99) — 5 goals materialised
  • Hammarby attacking xG significantly stronger (3.03 vs 1.96)
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Hammarby win 5–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:18 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Hammarby 3.03 — Piteå W 1.96
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Hammarby win · 5–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 45/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (124%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 47/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3346437

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hammarby win · Hammarby 5–0 Piteå W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Hammarby vs Piteå W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 65.4% · Draw 17.1% · Away 17.5%
  • xG (showing): Hammarby 3.03 — Piteå W 1.96 (total xG ≈ 4.99)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 12.6% · Over 2.5 87.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 82.3% · No 17.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 82.3% · No 17.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 3-1 (6.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 20 18 1 1 55
2 Hammarby 20 16 2 2 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 20 10 4 6 34
5 Kristianstad 20 8 5 7 29
6 Vittsjö 20 8 5 7 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 19 6 5 8 23
10 Djurgården 20 6 3 11 21
11 Växjö 20 5 3 12 18
12 Rosengård W 19 4 5 10 17
13 Norrköping W 20 3 7 10 16
14 Uppsala W 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 20 61 13 +48 55
2 Hammarby 20 49 10 +39 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 20 33 32 +1 29
5 AIK 20 29 27 +2 34
6 Vittsjö 20 27 26 +1 29
7 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
8 Djurgården 20 25 33 -8 21
9 Piteå W 19 23 28 -5 23
10 Växjö 20 23 40 -17 18
11 Rosengård W 19 20 25 -5 17
12 Eskilstuna United 20 18 25 -7 27
13 Norrköping W 20 17 35 -18 16
14 Uppsala W 20 14 64 -50 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 20 2.9 2.2 +0.7 50
2 AIK 20 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 20 — — — 55
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 20 — — — 29
6 Vittsjö 20 — — — 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 — — — 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 19 — — — 23
10 Djurgården 20 — — — 21
11 Växjö 20 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 19 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 20 — — — 16
14 Uppsala W 20 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions