Prediction Audit: AIK vs Vittsjö Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AIK

Aug 15, 2026 - 11:00

1 2.58

2 2.53

xG Accuracy: 56%

Vittsjö

The model missed the final outcome (Vittsjö win 1–2).

The model had projected AIK at 46.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 AIK Vittsjö ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 3-2, 2-3, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
AIK	46.5%	57.1%	-10.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	20.8%	23.1%	-2.4 pp	Aligned
Vittsjö	32.8%	19.7%	+13.0 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Vittsjö's win probability at 32.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.7%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Vittsjö win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vittsjö.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 5.11) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned AIK; match finished Vittsjö

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on AIK by 13.0 percentage points (33.5% vs model 46.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 19:12 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AIK 46.5% · Draw 20.8% · Vittsjö 32.8%
- xG · AIK 2.58 — Vittsjö 2.53
Aug 15, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AIK 1.60 · Draw 3.95 · Vittsjö 4.63
- Implied 1X2 · AIK 57.1% · Draw 23.1% · Vittsjö 19.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AIK 1.60 · Draw 3.95 · Vittsjö 4.63
- Implied 1X2 · AIK 57.1% · Draw 23.1% · Vittsjö 19.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Vittsjö win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 44/100 · Low

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (91%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100

Betting Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3340818

Closing Odds 4.63

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vittsjö win · AIK 1–2 Vittsjö

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Damallsvenskan
Fixture: AIK vs Vittsjö
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): AIK 2.58 — Vittsjö 2.53 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Häcken	20	18	1	1	55
2	Hammarby	20	16	2	2	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	10	6	3	36
4	AIK	20	10	4	6	34
5	Kristianstad	20	8	5	7	29
6	Vittsjö	20	8	5	7	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	8	3	9	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	8	2	9	26
9	Piteå W	19	6	5	8	23
10	Djurgården	20	6	3	11	21
11	Växjö	20	5	3	12	18
12	Rosengård W	19	4	5	10	17
13	Norrköping W	20	3	7	10	16
14	Uppsala W	20	1	3	16	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Häcken	20	61	13	+48	55
2	Hammarby	20	49	10	+39	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	38	11	+27	36
4	Kristianstad	20	33	32	+1	29
5	AIK	20	29	27	+2	34
6	Vittsjö	20	27	26	+1	29
7	Brommapojkarna W	19	25	33	-8	26
8	Djurgården	20	25	33	-8	21
9	Piteå W	19	23	28	-5	23
10	Växjö	20	23	40	-17	18
11	Rosengård W	19	20	25	-5	17
12	Eskilstuna United	20	18	25	-7	27
13	Norrköping W	20	17	35	-18	16
14	Uppsala W	20	14	64	-50	6

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Hammarby	20	2.9	2.2	+0.7	50
2	AIK	20	2.2	2.9	-0.7	34
3	Häcken	20	—	—	—	55
4	Malmö FF W	19	—	—	—	36
5	Kristianstad	20	—	—	—	29
6	Vittsjö	20	—	—	—	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	—	—	—	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	—	—	—	26
9	Piteå W	19	—	—	—	23
10	Djurgården	20	—	—	—	21
11	Växjö	20	—	—	—	18
12	Rosengård W	19	—	—	—	17
13	Norrköping W	20	—	—	—	16
14	Uppsala W	20	—	—	—	6