Prediction Audit: Hammarby vs Växjö Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hammarby

Jul 31, 2026 - 17:00

5 3.14

0 1.79

xG Accuracy: 37%

Växjö

AI correctly predicted the Hammarby win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hammarby Hammarby ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 3-1, 2-1, 3-2, 2-2, 4-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hammarby	64.1%	74.7%	-10.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	16.7%	14.6%	+2.1 pp	Aligned
Växjö	19.2%	10.7%	+8.5 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Hammarby's win probability at 74.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 64.1%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hammarby win 5–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hammarby than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.93) — 5 goals materialised
Hammarby attacking xG significantly stronger (3.14 vs 1.79)
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hammarby higher (74.7% vs model 64.1%, 10.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hammarby win 5–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hammarby 64.1% · Draw 16.7% · Växjö 19.2%
- xG · Hammarby 3.14 — Växjö 1.79
Jul 31, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hammarby 1.22 · Draw 6.24 · Växjö 8.55
- Implied 1X2 · Hammarby 74.7% · Draw 14.6% · Växjö 10.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hammarby 1.22 · Draw 6.24 · Växjö 8.55
- Implied 1X2 · Hammarby 74.7% · Draw 14.6% · Växjö 10.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hammarby win · 5–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 46/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (133%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 46/100

Betting Confidence 36/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1673372

Closing Odds 1.22

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hammarby win · Hammarby 5–0 Växjö

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Damallsvenskan
Fixture: Hammarby vs Växjö
Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 64.1% · Draw 16.7% · Away 19.2%
xG (showing): Hammarby 3.14 — Växjö 1.79 (total xG ≈ 4.93)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 13.1% · Over 2.5 86.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 80.2% · No 19.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 80.2% · No 19.8%
Correct score (top bin): 3-1 (6.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Häcken	20	18	1	1	55
2	Hammarby	20	16	2	2	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	10	6	3	36
4	AIK	20	10	4	6	34
5	Kristianstad	20	8	5	7	29
6	Vittsjö	20	8	5	7	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	8	3	9	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	8	2	9	26
9	Piteå W	19	6	5	8	23
10	Djurgården	20	6	3	11	21
11	Växjö	20	5	3	12	18
12	Rosengård W	19	4	5	10	17
13	Norrköping W	20	3	7	10	16
14	Uppsala W	20	1	3	16	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Häcken	20	61	13	+48	55
2	Hammarby	20	49	10	+39	50
3	Malmö FF W	19	38	11	+27	36
4	Kristianstad	20	33	32	+1	29
5	AIK	20	29	27	+2	34
6	Vittsjö	20	27	26	+1	29
7	Brommapojkarna W	19	25	33	-8	26
8	Djurgården	20	25	33	-8	21
9	Piteå W	19	23	28	-5	23
10	Växjö	20	23	40	-17	18
11	Rosengård W	19	20	25	-5	17
12	Eskilstuna United	20	18	25	-7	27
13	Norrköping W	20	17	35	-18	16
14	Uppsala W	20	14	64	-50	6

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Hammarby	20	2.9	2.2	+0.7	50
2	AIK	20	2.2	2.9	-0.7	34
3	Häcken	20	—	—	—	55
4	Malmö FF W	19	—	—	—	36
5	Kristianstad	20	—	—	—	29
6	Vittsjö	20	—	—	—	29
7	Eskilstuna United	20	—	—	—	27
8	Brommapojkarna W	19	—	—	—	26
9	Piteå W	19	—	—	—	23
10	Djurgården	20	—	—	—	21
11	Växjö	20	—	—	—	18
12	Rosengård W	19	—	—	—	17
13	Norrköping W	20	—	—	—	16
14	Uppsala W	20	—	—	—	6