Prediction Audit: Hammarby vs Häcken Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hammarby

Jun 13, 2026 - 13:00

0 2.56

1 1.50

xG Accuracy: 43%

Häcken

The model missed the final outcome (Häcken win 0–1).

The model had projected Hammarby at 56.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hammarby Häcken ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-0 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Häcken win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 13, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Hammarby 2.56 — Häcken 1.50
Jun 13, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Häcken win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 45/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending
High xG deviation from league baseline (90%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 47/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3120161

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Häcken win · Hammarby 0–1 Häcken

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Damallsvenskan
Fixture: Hammarby vs Häcken
Kickoff: 2026-06-13 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Hammarby 2.56 — Häcken 1.5 (total xG ≈ 4.06)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Häcken	21	19	1	1	58
2	Hammarby	21	17	2	2	53
3	Malmö FF W	21	11	6	4	39
4	AIK	21	10	4	7	34
5	Kristianstad	21	9	5	7	32
6	Vittsjö	21	9	5	7	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	9	2	10	29
8	Eskilstuna United	21	8	3	10	27
9	Piteå W	21	6	6	9	24
10	Djurgården	21	7	3	11	24
11	Rosengård W	21	5	5	11	20
12	Växjö	21	5	3	13	18
13	Norrköping W	21	3	8	10	17
14	Uppsala W	21	1	3	17	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Häcken	21	70	13	+57	58
2	Hammarby	21	51	10	+41	53
3	Malmö FF W	21	40	14	+26	39
4	Kristianstad	21	35	32	+3	32
5	AIK	21	30	29	+1	34
6	Vittsjö	21	29	26	+3	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	28	36	-8	29
8	Djurgården	21	27	34	-7	24
9	Piteå W	21	24	30	-6	24
10	Växjö	21	23	42	-19	18
11	Rosengård W	21	21	26	-5	20
12	Eskilstuna United	21	18	27	-9	27
13	Norrköping W	21	18	36	-18	17
14	Uppsala W	21	14	73	-59	6

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Hammarby	21	2.9	2.2	+0.7	53
2	AIK	21	2.2	2.9	-0.7	34
3	Häcken	21	—	—	—	58
4	Malmö FF W	21	—	—	—	39
5	Kristianstad	21	—	—	—	32
6	Vittsjö	21	—	—	—	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	—	—	—	29
8	Eskilstuna United	21	—	—	—	27
9	Piteå W	21	—	—	—	24
10	Djurgården	21	—	—	—	24
11	Rosengård W	21	—	—	—	20
12	Växjö	21	—	—	—	18
13	Norrköping W	21	—	—	—	17
14	Uppsala W	21	—	—	—	6