Predictions / Football / Norway. Toppserien / Stabæk W vs Røa

Prediction Audit: Stabæk W vs Røa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stabæk W Stabæk W
Jun 20, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.46
1 1.14
xG Accuracy: 64%
Røa Røa

The model missed the final outcome (Røa win 0–1).

The model had projected Stabæk W at 49.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stabæk W Røa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stabæk W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stabæk W -12.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stabæk W 49.1% 61.1% -12.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.1% 21.2% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Røa 23.8% 17.6% +6.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Stabæk W's win probability at 61.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.1%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Røa win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Stabæk W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Stabæk W; match finished Røa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Stabæk W by 12.0 percentage points (61.1% vs model 49.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 20, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stabæk W 49.0% · Draw 27.1% · Røa 23.8%
    • xG · Stabæk W 1.46 — Røa 1.14
  2. Jun 20, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk W 1.52 · Draw 4.38 · Røa 5.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk W 61.1% · Draw 21.2% · Røa 17.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 20, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk W 1.52 · Draw 4.38 · Røa 5.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk W 61.1% · Draw 21.2% · Røa 17.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Røa win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 39/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 18:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3568657

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Røa win · Stabæk W 0–1 Røa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Toppserien
  • Fixture: Stabæk W vs Røa
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 49.0% · Draw 27.1% · Away 23.8%
  • xG (showing): Stabæk W 1.46 — Røa 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Toppserien Toppserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brann W 17 15 2 0 47
2 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 13 2 2 41
3 Rosenborg W 17 11 4 2 37
4 Vålerenga W 17 11 1 5 34
5 Stabæk W 17 7 3 7 24
6 Lyn W 17 6 5 6 23
7 Molde W 17 5 3 9 18
8 Haugesund W 17 5 3 9 18
9 Lillestrøm 17 4 3 10 15
10 Hønefoss W 17 3 4 10 13
11 Røa 17 2 5 10 11
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 1 3 13 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brann W 17 53 4 +49 47
2 Vålerenga W 17 45 24 +21 34
3 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 42 16 +26 41
4 Stabæk W 17 33 20 +13 24
5 Rosenborg W 17 32 19 +13 37
6 Lyn W 17 30 23 +7 23
7 Molde W 17 23 33 -10 18
8 Lillestrøm 17 23 33 -10 15
9 Haugesund W 17 22 40 -18 18
10 Røa 17 16 36 -20 11
11 Hønefoss W 17 13 30 -17 13
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 11 65 -54 6
Toppserien Norway. Toppserien Predictions