Predictions / Football / Norway. Toppserien / Lyn W vs Rosenborg W

Prediction Audit: Lyn W vs Rosenborg W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lyn W Lyn W
Jun 13, 2026 - 11:30
4 1.07
4 1.53
xG Accuracy: 23%
Rosenborg W Rosenborg W

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).

The model had projected Rosenborg W at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rosenborg W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lyn W 25.0% 25.7% -0.7 pp Aligned
Draw 28.7% 24.2% +4.5 pp Aligned
Rosenborg W 46.3% 50.1% -3.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 4–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 4–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lyn W 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Rosenborg W 46.3%
    • xG · Lyn W 1.07 — Rosenborg W 1.53
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lyn W 3.57 · Draw 3.78 · Rosenborg W 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Lyn W 25.7% · Draw 24.2% · Rosenborg W 50.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 13, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lyn W 3.57 · Draw 3.78 · Rosenborg W 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Lyn W 25.7% · Draw 24.2% · Rosenborg W 50.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 13, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 11:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3116002

Closing Odds 3.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Lyn W 4–4 Rosenborg W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Toppserien
  • Fixture: Lyn W vs Rosenborg W
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Lyn W 1.07 — Rosenborg W 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +14.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Toppserien Toppserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brann W 17 15 2 0 47
2 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 13 2 2 41
3 Rosenborg W 17 11 4 2 37
4 Vålerenga W 17 11 1 5 34
5 Stabæk W 17 7 3 7 24
6 Lyn W 17 6 5 6 23
7 Molde W 17 5 3 9 18
8 Haugesund W 17 5 3 9 18
9 Lillestrøm 17 4 3 10 15
10 Hønefoss W 17 3 4 10 13
11 Røa 17 2 5 10 11
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 1 3 13 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brann W 17 53 4 +49 47
2 Vålerenga W 17 45 24 +21 34
3 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 42 16 +26 41
4 Stabæk W 17 33 20 +13 24
5 Rosenborg W 17 32 19 +13 37
6 Lyn W 17 30 23 +7 23
7 Molde W 17 23 33 -10 18
8 Lillestrøm 17 23 33 -10 15
9 Haugesund W 17 22 40 -18 18
10 Røa 17 16 36 -20 11
11 Hønefoss W 17 13 30 -17 13
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 11 65 -54 6
Toppserien Norway. Toppserien Predictions