Predictions / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Lillestrom vs Rosenborg

Prediction Audit: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lillestrom Lillestrom
Aug 09, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.00
2 1.81
xG Accuracy: 72%
Rosenborg Rosenborg

AI correctly predicted the Rosenborg win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rosenborg Rosenborg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Rosenborg considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Rosenborg +20.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lillestrom 19.2% 40.0% -20.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.8% 26.0% -0.2 pp Aligned
Rosenborg 55.0% 34.0% +20.9 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Rosenborg's win probability at 55.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 20.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rosenborg win 0–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Rosenborg attacking xG significantly stronger (1.81 vs 1.00)
  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rosenborg more conservatively (34.1% vs model 55.0%, 20.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rosenborg win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lillestrom 19.2% · Draw 25.8% · Rosenborg 55.0%
    • xG · Lillestrom 1.00 — Rosenborg 1.81
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lillestrom 2.42 · Draw 3.72 · Rosenborg 2.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Lillestrom 40.0% · Draw 26.0% · Rosenborg 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lillestrom 2.42 · Draw 3.72 · Rosenborg 2.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Lillestrom 40.0% · Draw 26.0% · Rosenborg 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rosenborg win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2962722

Closing Odds 2.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rosenborg win · Lillestrom 0–2 Rosenborg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Lillestrom 1.0 — Rosenborg 1.81 (total xG ≈ 2.81)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bodo/Glimt 20 16 2 2 50
2 Viking 20 15 2 3 47
3 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
4 Tromso 20 10 5 5 35
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 20 10 2 8 32
7 Fredrikstad 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brann 20 8 2 10 26
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Ham-Kam 20 6 5 9 23
12 Valerenga 20 6 4 10 22
13 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
14 Sandefjord 20 5 5 10 20
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 20 4 4 12 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bodo/Glimt 20 52 17 +35 50
2 Viking 20 51 20 +31 47
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
5 Tromso 20 37 27 +10 35
6 Brann 20 37 31 +6 26
7 Valerenga 20 33 42 -9 22
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Lillestrom 20 28 26 +2 32
10 Ham-Kam 20 27 41 -14 23
11 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
12 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
13 Fredrikstad 20 24 31 -7 27
14 Start 20 22 41 -19 16
15 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
16 Sandefjord 20 18 27 -9 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 20 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 20 14.1 9.9 +4.2 47
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 20 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 20 8.6 7.3 +1.3 26
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 20 7.4 7.7 -0.3 35
9 Lillestrom 20 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 20 12.6 14.4 -1.8 22
11 Fredrikstad 20 9.0 12.2 -3.2 27
12 Sandefjord 20 7.1 11.3 -4.2 20
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 20 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25