Predictions / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom

Prediction Audit: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt
Jul 31, 2026 - 19:00
4 2.18
0 1.00
xG Accuracy: 46%
Lillestrom Lillestrom

AI correctly predicted the Bodo/Glimt win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bodo/Glimt higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bodo/Glimt -11.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bodo/Glimt 65.9% 77.1% -11.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 20.3% 13.9% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Lillestrom 13.9% 9.0% +4.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Bodo/Glimt's win probability at 77.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 65.9%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bodo/Glimt win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bodo/Glimt than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.18) — 4 goals materialised
  • Bodo/Glimt attacking xG significantly stronger (2.18 vs 1.00)
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bodo/Glimt higher (77.2% vs model 65.9%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bodo/Glimt win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bodo/Glimt 65.8% · Draw 20.3% · Lillestrom 13.9%
    • xG · Bodo/Glimt 2.18 — Lillestrom 1.00
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bodo/Glimt 1.25 · Draw 6.94 · Lillestrom 10.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Bodo/Glimt 77.1% · Draw 13.9% · Lillestrom 9.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bodo/Glimt 1.25 · Draw 6.94 · Lillestrom 10.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Bodo/Glimt 77.1% · Draw 13.9% · Lillestrom 9.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bodo/Glimt win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (61%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1679008

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bodo/Glimt win · Bodo/Glimt 4–0 Lillestrom
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 65.8% · Draw 20.3% · Away 13.9%
  • xG (showing): Bodo/Glimt 2.18 — Lillestrom 1.0 (total xG ≈ 3.18)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 38.4% · Over 2.5 61.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.2% · No 42.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.2% · No 42.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (9.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking 21 54 20 +34 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 53 19 +34 50
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Tromso 21 40 29 +11 38
5 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
6 Brann 21 39 32 +7 29
7 Valerenga 21 34 43 -9 23
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Ham-Kam 21 29 44 -15 23
10 Lillestrom 21 28 29 -1 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 25 32 -7 28
12 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
13 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
14 Start 21 22 44 -22 16
15 Sandefjord 21 21 27 -6 23
16 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 21 14.1 9.9 +4.2 50
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 21 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 21 8.6 7.3 +1.3 29
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 21 7.4 7.7 -0.3 38
9 Lillestrom 21 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 21 12.6 14.4 -1.8 23
11 Fredrikstad 21 9.0 12.2 -3.2 28
12 Sandefjord 21 7.1 11.3 -4.2 23
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 21 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25