Predictions / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt

Prediction Audit: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sandefjord Sandefjord
Jul 26, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.75
3 1.99
xG Accuracy: 47%
Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt

AI correctly predicted the Bodo/Glimt win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bodo/Glimt higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bodo/Glimt -20.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sandefjord 25.6% 11.7% +13.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 22.3% 15.7% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Bodo/Glimt 52.1% 72.6% -20.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bodo/Glimt's win probability at 72.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 52.1%, a difference of 20.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bodo/Glimt win 0–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.74) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bodo/Glimt higher (72.6% vs model 52.1%, 20.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bodo/Glimt win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sandefjord 25.6% · Draw 22.3% · Bodo/Glimt 52.1%
    • xG · Sandefjord 1.75 — Bodo/Glimt 1.99
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sandefjord 8.26 · Draw 6.15 · Bodo/Glimt 1.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Sandefjord 11.7% · Draw 15.7% · Bodo/Glimt 72.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Sandefjord 8.26 · Draw 6.15 · Bodo/Glimt 1.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Sandefjord 11.7% · Draw 15.7% · Bodo/Glimt 72.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bodo/Glimt win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452803

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds 2.57
CLV Pending
Final Result Bodo/Glimt win · Sandefjord 0–3 Bodo/Glimt
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 39.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodø/Glimt
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Sandefjord 1.75 — Bodø/Glimt 1.99 (total xG ≈ 3.74)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking 21 54 20 +34 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 53 19 +34 50
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Tromso 21 40 29 +11 38
5 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
6 Brann 21 39 32 +7 29
7 Valerenga 21 34 43 -9 23
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Ham-Kam 21 29 44 -15 23
10 Lillestrom 21 28 29 -1 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 25 32 -7 28
12 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
13 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
14 Start 21 22 44 -22 16
15 Sandefjord 21 21 27 -6 23
16 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 21 14.1 9.9 +4.2 50
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 21 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 21 8.6 7.3 +1.3 29
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 21 7.4 7.7 -0.3 38
9 Lillestrom 21 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 21 12.6 14.4 -1.8 23
11 Fredrikstad 21 9.0 12.2 -3.2 28
12 Sandefjord 21 7.1 11.3 -4.2 23
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 21 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25