Predictions / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Ham-Kam vs Tromso

Prediction Audit: Ham-Kam vs Tromso Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ham-Kam Ham-Kam
Jul 18, 2026 - 12:00
1 2.19
4 2.05
xG Accuracy: 42%
Tromso Tromso

The model missed the final outcome (Tromso win 1–4).

The model had projected Ham-Kam at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ham-Kam Tromso ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Ham-Kam considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Ham-Kam +16.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ham-Kam 41.8% 25.2% +16.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 21.7% 29.5% -7.8 pp Market Higher
Tromso 36.5% 45.4% -8.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Ham-Kam's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.2%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tromso win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ham-Kam.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.24) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Ham-Kam; match finished Tromso
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ham-Kam by 16.6 percentage points (25.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ham-Kam 41.8% · Draw 21.7% · Tromso 36.5%
    • xG · Ham-Kam 2.19 — Tromso 2.05
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ham-Kam 3.84 · Draw 3.28 · Tromso 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Ham-Kam 25.2% · Draw 29.5% · Tromso 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ham-Kam 3.84 · Draw 3.28 · Tromso 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Ham-Kam 25.2% · Draw 29.5% · Tromso 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tromso win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (62%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 17/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1550523

Closing Odds 3.84
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Tromso win · Ham-Kam 1–4 Tromso
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: HamKam vs Tromso
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): HamKam 2.19 — Tromso 2.05 (total xG ≈ 4.24)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking 21 54 20 +34 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 53 19 +34 50
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Tromso 21 40 29 +11 38
5 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
6 Brann 21 39 32 +7 29
7 Valerenga 21 34 43 -9 23
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Ham-Kam 21 29 44 -15 23
10 Lillestrom 21 28 29 -1 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 25 32 -7 28
12 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
13 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
14 Start 21 22 44 -22 16
15 Sandefjord 21 21 27 -6 23
16 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 21 14.1 9.9 +4.2 50
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 21 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 21 8.6 7.3 +1.3 29
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 21 7.4 7.7 -0.3 38
9 Lillestrom 21 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 21 12.6 14.4 -1.8 23
11 Fredrikstad 21 9.0 12.2 -3.2 28
12 Sandefjord 21 7.1 11.3 -4.2 23
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 21 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25