Predictions / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad

Prediction Audit: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt
Jul 17, 2026 - 17:15
1 3.31
0 0.77
xG Accuracy: 43%
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad

AI correctly predicted the Bodo/Glimt win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 3-0, 2-0, 4-0, 3-1, 2-1 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Fredrikstad -1.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bodo/Glimt 84.4% 83.8% +0.6 pp Aligned
Draw 10.5% 9.8% +0.7 pp Aligned
Fredrikstad 5.1% 6.4% -1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bodo/Glimt win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Bodo/Glimt attacking xG significantly stronger (3.31 vs 0.77)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bodo/Glimt win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bodo/Glimt 84.3% · Draw 10.6% · Fredrikstad 5.1%
    • xG · Bodo/Glimt 3.31 — Fredrikstad 0.77
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bodo/Glimt 1.14 · Draw 9.74 · Fredrikstad 14.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Bodo/Glimt 83.8% · Draw 9.8% · Fredrikstad 6.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bodo/Glimt 1.14 · Draw 9.74 · Fredrikstad 14.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Bodo/Glimt 83.8% · Draw 9.8% · Fredrikstad 6.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 17:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bodo/Glimt win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 66/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (145%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 93/100
Betting Confidence 69/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1467478

Closing Odds 14.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bodo/Glimt win · Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Fredrikstad
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Bodø/Glimt vs Fredrikstad FK
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): Bodø/Glimt 3.31 — Fredrikstad FK 0.77 (total xG ≈ 4.08)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking 21 54 20 +34 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 53 19 +34 50
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Tromso 21 40 29 +11 38
5 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
6 Brann 21 39 32 +7 29
7 Valerenga 21 34 43 -9 23
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Ham-Kam 21 29 44 -15 23
10 Lillestrom 21 28 29 -1 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 25 32 -7 28
12 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
13 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
14 Start 21 22 44 -22 16
15 Sandefjord 21 21 27 -6 23
16 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 21 14.1 9.9 +4.2 50
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 21 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 21 8.6 7.3 +1.3 29
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 21 7.4 7.7 -0.3 38
9 Lillestrom 21 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 21 12.6 14.4 -1.8 23
11 Fredrikstad 21 9.0 12.2 -3.2 28
12 Sandefjord 21 7.1 11.3 -4.2 23
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 21 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25