Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Super League / Servette FC vs FC Thun

Prediction Audit: Servette FC vs FC Thun Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Servette FC Servette FC
Feb 08, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.91
3 1.52
xG Accuracy: 52%
FC Thun FC Thun

The model missed the final outcome (FC Thun win 1–3).

The model had projected Servette FC at 45.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Servette FC FC Thun ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.43) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Servette FC; match finished FC Thun
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was FC Thun win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Servette FC 1.91 — FC Thun 1.52
  2. Feb 08, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result FC Thun win · 1–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 07:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9035745

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Thun win · Servette FC 1–3 FC Thun
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Thun 33 24 2 7 74
2 FC ST. Gallen 33 17 9 7 60
3 FC Lugano 33 16 9 8 57
4 FC Basel 1893 33 15 8 10 53
5 FC Sion 33 13 13 7 52
6 BSC Young Boys 33 13 9 11 48
7 FC Luzern 33 10 10 13 40
8 Servette FC 33 9 13 11 40
9 Lausanne 33 10 9 14 39
10 FC Zurich 33 10 4 19 34
11 Grasshoppers 33 6 9 18 27
12 FC Winterthur 33 4 7 22 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Thun 33 75 37 +38 74
2 BSC Young Boys 33 65 60 +5 48
3 FC ST. Gallen 33 64 40 +24 60
4 FC Luzern 33 64 61 +3 40
5 Servette FC 33 57 57 0 40
6 FC Sion 33 51 35 +16 52
7 FC Basel 1893 33 51 45 +6 53
8 FC Lugano 33 50 38 +12 57
9 Lausanne 33 47 57 -10 39
10 FC Zurich 33 45 63 -18 34
11 Grasshoppers 33 40 65 -25 27
12 FC Winterthur 33 35 86 -51 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Sion 33 48.5 34.4 +14.1 52
2 FC ST. Gallen 33 59.2 48.0 +11.2 60
3 FC Basel 1893 33 63.6 53.3 +10.3 53
4 FC Thun 33 59.2 51.5 +7.7 74
5 Servette FC 33 48.7 41.2 +7.5 40
6 Lausanne 33 51.4 47.1 +4.3 39
7 FC Luzern 33 52.2 48.9 +3.3 40
8 FC Lugano 33 42.9 42.1 +0.8 57
9 BSC Young Boys 33 49.7 52.9 -3.2 48
10 FC Zurich 33 50.3 59.1 -8.8 34
11 Grasshoppers 33 38.4 57.9 -19.5 27
12 FC Winterthur 33 36.7 64.4 -27.7 19