Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF

Prediction Audit: Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Orgryte IS Orgryte IS
Sep 06, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 85%
Hammarby FF Hammarby FF

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hammarby FF at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hammarby FF Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hammarby FF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hammarby FF -40.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Orgryte IS 31.5% 8.0% +23.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.5% 12.9% +16.6 pp Model Edge
Hammarby FF 39.0% 79.0% -40.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hammarby FF's win probability at 79.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 40.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Hammarby FF; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hammarby FF by 40.1 percentage points (79.1% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Orgryte IS 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Hammarby FF 39.0%
    • xG · Orgryte IS 1.22 — Hammarby FF 1.38
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Orgryte IS 11.92 · Draw 7.40 · Hammarby FF 1.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Orgryte IS 8.0% · Draw 12.9% · Hammarby FF 79.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Orgryte IS 11.92 · Draw 7.40 · Hammarby FF 1.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Orgryte IS 8.0% · Draw 12.9% · Hammarby FF 79.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 29/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (40 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6326754

Closing Odds 1.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Orgryte IS 1–1 Hammarby FF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Hammarby FF; market prices Hammarby FF instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Orgryte IS 1.22 xG vs Hammarby FF 1.38 → Hammarby FF 39.0%
  • Market: Hammarby FF ~79.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 19, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 21 15 3 3 48
2 Djurgardens IF 21 13 2 6 41
3 Hammarby FF 21 12 4 5 40
4 IF Elfsborg 21 9 7 5 34
5 Malmo FF 21 10 3 8 33
6 BK Hacken 21 8 9 4 33
7 AIK Stockholm 21 9 6 6 33
8 Vasteras SK FK 21 9 5 7 32
9 IFK Goteborg 21 8 5 8 29
10 Gais 21 7 6 8 27
11 IF Brommapojkarna 21 7 6 8 27
12 Mjallby AIF 21 5 7 9 22
13 Kalmar FF 21 5 4 12 19
14 Degerfors IF 21 5 4 12 19
15 Orgryte IS 21 3 6 12 15
16 Halmstad 21 2 5 14 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 21 50 27 +23 48
2 Hammarby FF 21 48 20 +28 40
3 Djurgardens IF 21 46 19 +27 41
4 Malmo FF 21 37 31 +6 33
5 BK Hacken 21 34 30 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 21 32 35 -3 32
7 AIK Stockholm 21 30 32 -2 33
8 IF Brommapojkarna 21 30 35 -5 27
9 IFK Goteborg 21 30 41 -11 29
10 IF Elfsborg 21 29 21 +8 34
11 Mjallby AIF 21 27 35 -8 22
12 Gais 21 25 20 +5 27
13 Orgryte IS 21 24 47 -23 15
14 Kalmar FF 21 21 31 -10 19
15 Degerfors IF 21 19 33 -14 19
16 Halmstad 21 14 39 -25 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 21 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 21 1.9 0.9 +1.0 29
3 Malmo FF 21 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 21 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 21 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 21 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 21 — — — 48
8 Hammarby FF 21 — — — 40
9 IF Elfsborg 21 — — — 34
10 BK Hacken 21 — — — 33
11 Vasteras SK FK 21 — — — 32
12 Gais 21 — — — 27
13 IF Brommapojkarna 21 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 21 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 21 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 21 — — — 11
Allsvenskan Sweden. Allsvenskan Predictions