Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF

Prediction Audit: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Djurgardens IF Djurgardens IF
Aug 31, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.39
0 1.55
xG Accuracy: 32%
Mjallby AIF Mjallby AIF

The model missed the final outcome (Djurgardens IF win 4–0).

The model had projected Mjallby AIF at 39.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mjallby AIF Djurgardens IF ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Djurgardens IF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Djurgardens IF -31.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Djurgardens IF 32.7% 64.5% -31.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.5% 19.0% +8.4 pp Model Higher
Mjallby AIF 39.8% 16.5% +23.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Djurgardens IF's win probability at 64.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.7%, a difference of 31.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Djurgardens IF win 4–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.94) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Mjallby AIF; match finished Djurgardens IF

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mjallby AIF by 31.7 percentage points (71.5% vs model 39.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Djurgardens IF 32.7% · Draw 27.5% · Mjallby AIF 39.8%
    • xG · Djurgardens IF 1.39 — Mjallby AIF 1.55
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Djurgardens IF 1.48 · Draw 5.01 · Mjallby AIF 5.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Djurgardens IF 64.5% · Draw 19.0% · Mjallby AIF 16.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Djurgardens IF 1.48 · Draw 5.01 · Mjallby AIF 5.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Djurgardens IF 64.5% · Draw 19.0% · Mjallby AIF 16.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Djurgardens IF win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5403974

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Djurgardens IF win · Djurgardens IF 4–0 Mjallby AIF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Mjallby AIF; market prices Djurgardens IF instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Djurgardens IF 1.39 xG vs Mjallby AIF 1.55 → Mjallby AIF 39.8%
  • Market: Djurgardens IF ~16.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.6% · No 39.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 22 1.9 0.9 +1.0 32
3 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 22 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 22 — — — 51
8 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
9 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
10 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
11 Vasteras SK FK 22 — — — 35
12 Gais 22 — — — 30
13 IF Brommapojkarna 22 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14