Prediction Audit: Mjallby AIF vs Sirius Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mjallby AIF

Aug 15, 2026 - 13:00

4 1.55

3 1.68

xG Accuracy: 36%

Sirius

The model missed the final outcome (Mjallby AIF win 4–3).

The model had projected Sirius at 39.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sirius Mjallby AIF ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Mjallby AIF	34.3%	27.0%	+7.3 pp	Model Higher
Draw	25.9%	26.7%	-0.8 pp	Aligned
Sirius	39.8%	46.3%	-6.5 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Mjallby AIF's win probability at 34.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.0%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mjallby AIF win 4–3.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mjallby AIF.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.23) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Sirius; match finished Mjallby AIF
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sirius by 7.3 percentage points (32.5% vs model 39.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mjallby AIF 34.2% · Draw 25.9% · Sirius 39.8%
- xG · Mjallby AIF 1.55 — Sirius 1.68
Aug 15, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mjallby AIF 3.53 · Draw 3.57 · Sirius 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Mjallby AIF 27.0% · Draw 26.7% · Sirius 46.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mjallby AIF 3.53 · Draw 3.57 · Sirius 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Mjallby AIF 27.0% · Draw 26.7% · Sirius 46.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Mjallby AIF win · 4–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3346411

Closing Odds 3.53

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Mjallby AIF win · Mjallby AIF 4–3 Sirius

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Allsvenskan
Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Sirius
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 25.9% · Away 39.8%
xG (showing): Mjallby AIF 1.55 — Sirius 1.68 (total xG ≈ 3.23)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.4% · Over 2.5 62.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.4% · No 34.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 65.4% · No 34.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Allsvenskan Matches Track Mjallby AIF Next Match Prediction Track Sirius Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Mjallby AIF & Sirius!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Allsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	13	4	5	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	13	2	7	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	22	10	5	7	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	33
8	AIK Stockholm	22	9	6	7	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	32
10	Gais	22	8	6	8	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	27
12	Mjallby AIF	22	5	7	10	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	19
14	Degerfors IF	22	5	4	13	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sirius	22	52	28	+24	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	49	20	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	47	21	+26	41
4	BK Hacken	22	39	30	+9	36
5	Malmo FF	22	37	33	+4	33
6	Vasteras SK FK	22	34	35	-1	35
7	IF Elfsborg	22	31	22	+9	37
8	AIK Stockholm	22	31	34	-3	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	31	41	-10	32
10	IF Brommapojkarna	22	30	36	-6	27
11	Gais	22	28	20	+8	30
12	Mjallby AIF	22	27	38	-11	22
13	Orgryte IS	22	25	49	-24	15
14	Kalmar FF	22	21	36	-15	19
15	Degerfors IF	22	19	34	-15	19
16	Halmstad	22	16	40	-24	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Kalmar FF	22	1.6	0.5	+1.1	19
2	IFK Goteborg	22	1.9	0.9	+1.0	32
3	Malmo FF	22	1.3	0.6	+0.7	33
4	AIK Stockholm	22	3.8	3.2	+0.6	33
5	Djurgardens IF	22	0.5	1.6	-1.1	41
6	Mjallby AIF	22	2.8	5.1	-2.3	22
7	Sirius	22	—	—	—	51
8	Hammarby FF	22	—	—	—	43
9	IF Elfsborg	22	—	—	—	37
10	BK Hacken	22	—	—	—	36
11	Vasteras SK FK	22	—	—	—	35
12	Gais	22	—	—	—	30
13	IF Brommapojkarna	22	—	—	—	27
14	Degerfors IF	22	—	—	—	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	—	—	—	15
16	Halmstad	22	—	—	—	14