Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK

Prediction Audit: IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

IF Elfsborg IF Elfsborg
Aug 14, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK

The model missed the final outcome (IF Elfsborg win 3–0).

The model had projected Vasteras SK FK at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vasteras SK FK IF Elfsborg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices IF Elfsborg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: IF Elfsborg -21.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
IF Elfsborg 34.7% 56.5% -21.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.3% +6.3 pp Model Higher
Vasteras SK FK 35.6% 20.2% +15.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates IF Elfsborg's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 21.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was IF Elfsborg win 3–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vasteras SK FK by 21.8 percentage points (57.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · IF Elfsborg 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Vasteras SK FK 35.6%
    • xG · IF Elfsborg 1.29 — Vasteras SK FK 1.31
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · IF Elfsborg 1.69 · Draw 4.10 · Vasteras SK FK 4.74
    • Implied 1X2 · IF Elfsborg 56.5% · Draw 23.3% · Vasteras SK FK 20.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · IF Elfsborg 1.69 · Draw 4.10 · Vasteras SK FK 4.74
    • Implied 1X2 · IF Elfsborg 56.5% · Draw 23.3% · Vasteras SK FK 20.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result IF Elfsborg win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3229189

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result IF Elfsborg win · IF Elfsborg 3–0 Vasteras SK FK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): IF Elfsborg 1.29 — Vasteras SK FK 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Vasteras SK FK
  • Model: 35.6% · Implied: 20.2% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 22 1.9 0.9 +1.0 32
3 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 22 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 22 — — — 51
8 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
9 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
10 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
11 Vasteras SK FK 22 — — — 35
12 Gais 22 — — — 30
13 IF Brommapojkarna 22 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14