Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg

Prediction Audit: Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Degerfors IF Degerfors IF
Aug 16, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.55
0 1.46
xG Accuracy: 45%
IFK Goteborg IFK Goteborg

AI correctly predicted the Degerfors IF win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Degerfors IF Degerfors IF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Degerfors IF considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Degerfors IF +8.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Degerfors IF 38.4% 30.1% +8.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 27.1% 28.7% -1.6 pp Aligned
IFK Goteborg 34.5% 41.2% -6.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Degerfors IF's win probability at 38.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.1%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Degerfors IF win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Degerfors IF.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.01) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Degerfors IF more conservatively (30.1% vs model 38.4%, 8.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Degerfors IF win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Degerfors IF 38.4% · Draw 27.1% · IFK Goteborg 34.5%
    • xG · Degerfors IF 1.55 — IFK Goteborg 1.46
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Degerfors IF 3.19 · Draw 3.34 · IFK Goteborg 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Degerfors IF 30.1% · Draw 28.7% · IFK Goteborg 41.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Degerfors IF 3.19 · Draw 3.34 · IFK Goteborg 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Degerfors IF 30.1% · Draw 28.7% · IFK Goteborg 41.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Degerfors IF win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3602156

Closing Odds 3.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Degerfors IF win · Degerfors IF 3–0 IFK Goteborg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.4% · Draw 27.1% · Away 34.5%
  • xG (showing): Degerfors IF 1.55 — IFK Goteborg 1.46 (total xG ≈ 3.01)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.1% · Over 2.5 57.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.9% · No 38.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.9% · No 38.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 22 1.9 0.9 +1.0 32
3 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 22 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 22 — — — 51
8 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
9 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
10 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
11 Vasteras SK FK 22 — — — 35
12 Gais 22 — — — 30
13 IF Brommapojkarna 22 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14