Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna

Prediction Audit: Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sirius Sirius
Aug 10, 2026 - 17:00
2 2.20
2 0.99
xG Accuracy: 72%
IF Brommapojkarna IF Brommapojkarna

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Sirius at 63.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sirius Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sirius higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sirius -7.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sirius 63.7% 70.8% -7.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 21.7% 17.4% +4.3 pp Aligned
IF Brommapojkarna 14.7% 11.8% +2.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sirius's win probability at 70.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 63.7%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sirius. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.19) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sirius; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sirius by 7.1 percentage points (70.8% vs model 63.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sirius 63.7% · Draw 21.6% · IF Brommapojkarna 14.7%
    • xG · Sirius 2.20 — IF Brommapojkarna 0.99
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sirius 1.35 · Draw 5.50 · IF Brommapojkarna 8.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Sirius 70.8% · Draw 17.4% · IF Brommapojkarna 11.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sirius 1.35 · Draw 5.50 · IF Brommapojkarna 8.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Sirius 70.8% · Draw 17.4% · IF Brommapojkarna 11.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 69/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (63%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 72/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2972205

Closing Odds 1.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sirius 2–2 IF Brommapojkarna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 63.7% · Draw 21.6% · Away 14.7%
  • xG (showing): Sirius 2.2 — IF Brommapojkarna 0.99 (total xG ≈ 3.19)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 38.2% · Over 2.5 61.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 22 1.9 0.9 +1.0 32
3 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 22 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 22 — — — 51
8 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
9 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
10 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
11 Vasteras SK FK 22 — — — 35
12 Gais 22 — — — 30
13 IF Brommapojkarna 22 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14