Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF

Prediction Audit: Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Malmo FF Malmo FF
Aug 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.40
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 74%
Degerfors IF Degerfors IF

The model missed the final outcome (Degerfors IF win 1–2).

The model had projected Malmo FF at 37.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Malmo FF Degerfors IF ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Malmo FF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Malmo FF -27.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Malmo FF 37.2% 64.8% -27.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.8% 20.4% +8.4 pp Model Higher
Degerfors IF 34.0% 14.7% +19.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Malmo FF's win probability at 64.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.2%, a difference of 27.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Degerfors IF win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.73) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Malmo FF; match finished Degerfors IF

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Malmo FF by 27.6 percentage points (64.8% vs model 37.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Malmo FF 37.2% · Draw 28.8% · Degerfors IF 34.0%
    • xG · Malmo FF 1.40 — Degerfors IF 1.33
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Malmo FF 1.47 · Draw 4.67 · Degerfors IF 6.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Malmo FF 64.8% · Draw 20.4% · Degerfors IF 14.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Malmo FF 1.47 · Draw 4.67 · Degerfors IF 6.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Malmo FF 64.8% · Draw 20.4% · Degerfors IF 14.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Degerfors IF win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 06:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2978694

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Degerfors IF win · Malmo FF 1–2 Degerfors IF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.2% · Draw 28.8% · Away 34.0%
  • xG (showing): Malmo FF 1.4 — Degerfors IF 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.73)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 48.6% · Over 2.5 51.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 22 1.9 0.9 +1.0 32
3 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 22 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 22 — — — 51
8 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
9 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
10 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
11 Vasteras SK FK 22 — — — 35
12 Gais 22 — — — 30
13 IF Brommapojkarna 22 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14