Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF

Prediction Audit: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

IF Elfsborg IF Elfsborg
Jul 05, 2026 - 14:30
1 2.16
2 1.99
xG Accuracy: 72%
Hammarby FF Hammarby FF

AI correctly predicted the Hammarby FF win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hammarby FF Hammarby FF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.15) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Hammarby FF win 1–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 05, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · IF Elfsborg 2.16 — Hammarby FF 1.99
  2. Jul 05, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Hammarby FF win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (60%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 53/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1487060

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.76
CLV Pending
Final Result Hammarby FF win · IF Elfsborg 1–2 Hammarby FF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 36.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): IF Elfsborg 2.16 — Hammarby FF 1.99 (total xG ≈ 4.15)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 BK Hacken 22 3.8 0.3 +3.5 36
2 IF Elfsborg 22 3.3 0.3 +3.0 37
3 Kalmar FF 22 3.5 1.8 +1.7 19
4 IFK Goteborg 22 2.9 1.5 +1.4 32
5 AIK Stockholm 22 7.0 6.3 +0.7 33
6 Sirius 22 1.9 1.2 +0.7 51
7 Malmo FF 22 2.6 2.4 +0.2 33
8 IF Brommapojkarna 22 3.1 3.2 -0.1 27
9 Djurgardens IF 22 2.2 2.4 -0.2 41
10 Vasteras SK FK 22 0.6 0.9 -0.3 35
11 Degerfors IF 22 0.7 1.2 -0.5 19
12 Gais 22 1.2 1.9 -0.7 30
13 Hammarby FF 22 0.8 1.8 -1.0 43
14 Mjallby AIF 22 4.0 5.8 -1.8 22
15 Halmstad 22 0.3 3.3 -3.0 14
16 Orgryte IS 22 0.3 3.8 -3.5 15
Allsvenskan Sweden. Allsvenskan Predictions