Prediction Audit: NY Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NY Cosmos

Sep 27, 2026 - 20:00

3 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 52%

Richmond Kickers

AI correctly predicted the NY Cosmos win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 NY Cosmos NY Cosmos ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
NY Cosmos	37.1%	57.4%	-20.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.5%	+6.1 pp	Model Higher
Richmond Kickers	33.3%	19.1%	+14.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates NY Cosmos's win probability at 57.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 20.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (NY Cosmos win 3–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced NY Cosmos higher (57.4% vs model 37.1%, 20.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (NY Cosmos win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 26, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · NY Cosmos 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Richmond Kickers 33.4%
- xG · NY Cosmos 1.34 — Richmond Kickers 1.26
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · NY Cosmos 1.60 · Draw 3.90 · Richmond Kickers 4.80
- Implied 1X2 · NY Cosmos 57.4% · Draw 23.5% · Richmond Kickers 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · NY Cosmos 1.60 · Draw 3.90 · Richmond Kickers 4.80
- Implied 1X2 · NY Cosmos 57.4% · Draw 23.5% · Richmond Kickers 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result NY Cosmos win · 3–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (20 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10121017

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result NY Cosmos win · NY Cosmos 3–2 Richmond Kickers

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL League One
Fixture: NY Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): NY Cosmos 1.34 — Richmond Kickers 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Omaha	28	18	4	6	58
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	57
3	Forward Madison	28	15	6	7	51
4	One Knoxville	27	13	8	6	47
5	Boise	27	13	7	7	46
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	13	4	9	43
7	Spokane Velocity	25	13	4	8	43
8	Fort Wayne	27	10	8	9	38
9	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	33
10	Corpus Christi	26	8	9	9	33
11	Alta	28	8	8	12	32
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	30
13	Westchester SC	27	8	5	14	29
14	Naples	26	8	4	14	28
15	Greenville Triumph	26	6	5	15	23
16	NY Cosmos	26	6	4	16	22
17	Richmond Kickers	26	5	5	16	20
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	28	64	40	+24	57
2	Forward Madison	28	50	27	+23	51
3	Union Omaha	28	50	30	+20	58
4	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	47	38	+9	43
5	Westchester SC	27	46	45	+1	29
6	One Knoxville	27	44	31	+13	47
7	Boise	27	43	37	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	27	42	36	+6	38
9	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	40	50	-10	30
10	Spokane Velocity	25	37	33	+4	43
11	Sarasota Paradise	27	37	40	-3	33
12	Alta	28	34	40	-6	32
13	NY Cosmos	26	32	52	-20	22
14	Corpus Christi	26	30	36	-6	33
15	Naples	26	29	43	-14	28
16	Greenville Triumph	26	29	48	-19	23
17	Richmond Kickers	26	25	53	-28	20
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0