Predictions / Football / USA. USL League One / Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison

Prediction Audit: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Portland Hearts of Pine Portland Hearts of Pine
Aug 16, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.41
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 72%
Forward Madison Forward Madison

The model missed the final outcome (Forward Madison win 1–2).

The model had projected Portland Hearts of Pine at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Portland Hearts of Pine Forward Madison ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Forward Madison higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Forward Madison -11.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Portland Hearts of Pine 40.4% 32.4% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 26.0% +3.5 pp Aligned
Forward Madison 30.1% 41.7% -11.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Forward Madison's win probability at 41.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Forward Madison win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Forward Madison than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Portland Hearts of Pine; match finished Forward Madison

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Portland Hearts of Pine by 11.5 percentage points (51.9% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Portland Hearts of Pine 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Forward Madison 30.1%
    • xG · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.41 — Forward Madison 1.19
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Portland Hearts of Pine 2.83 · Draw 3.53 · Forward Madison 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Portland Hearts of Pine 32.4% · Draw 26.0% · Forward Madison 41.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Portland Hearts of Pine 2.83 · Draw 3.53 · Forward Madison 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Portland Hearts of Pine 32.4% · Draw 26.0% · Forward Madison 41.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Forward Madison win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3617216

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Forward Madison win · Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Forward Madison
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: USL League One
  • Fixture: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Portland Hearts of Pine 1.41 — Forward Madison 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One USL League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Omaha 28 18 4 6 58
2 Charlotte Independence 28 17 6 5 57
3 Forward Madison 28 15 6 7 51
4 One Knoxville 27 13 8 6 47
5 Boise 27 13 7 7 46
6 Chattanooga Red Wolves 26 13 4 9 43
7 Spokane Velocity 25 13 4 8 43
8 Fort Wayne 27 10 8 9 38
9 Sarasota Paradise 27 9 6 12 33
10 Corpus Christi 26 8 9 9 33
11 Alta 28 8 8 12 32
12 Portland Hearts of Pine 28 7 9 12 30
13 Westchester SC 27 8 5 14 29
14 Naples 26 8 4 14 28
15 Greenville Triumph 26 6 5 15 23
16 NY Cosmos 26 6 4 16 22
17 Richmond Kickers 26 5 5 16 20
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charlotte Independence 28 64 40 +24 57
2 Forward Madison 28 50 27 +23 51
3 Union Omaha 28 50 30 +20 58
4 Chattanooga Red Wolves 26 47 38 +9 43
5 Westchester SC 27 46 45 +1 29
6 One Knoxville 27 44 31 +13 47
7 Boise 27 43 37 +6 46
8 Fort Wayne 27 42 36 +6 38
9 Portland Hearts of Pine 28 40 50 -10 30
10 Spokane Velocity 25 37 33 +4 43
11 Sarasota Paradise 27 37 40 -3 33
12 Alta 28 34 40 -6 32
13 NY Cosmos 26 32 52 -20 22
14 Corpus Christi 26 30 36 -6 33
15 Naples 26 29 43 -14 28
16 Greenville Triumph 26 29 48 -19 23
17 Richmond Kickers 26 25 53 -28 20
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
USL League One USA. USL League One Predictions