Predictions / Football / USA. USL Championship / Brooklyn vs San Antonio

Prediction Audit: Brooklyn vs San Antonio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Brooklyn
Jul 25, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
San Antonio San Antonio

The model missed the final outcome (San Antonio win 0–1).

The model had projected Brooklyn at 37.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Brooklyn San Antonio ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +2.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Brooklyn 37.6% 39.1% -1.5 pp Aligned
Draw 28.6% 26.0% +2.6 pp Aligned
San Antonio 33.8% 34.9% -1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was San Antonio win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Brooklyn; match finished San Antonio

Market lesson

The full-time result was San Antonio win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 23:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Brooklyn 37.6% · Draw 28.6% · San Antonio 33.8%
    • xG · Brooklyn 1.34 — San Antonio 1.26
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Brooklyn 2.44 · Draw 3.67 · San Antonio 2.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Brooklyn 39.1% · Draw 26.0% · San Antonio 34.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Brooklyn 2.44 · Draw 3.67 · San Antonio 2.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Brooklyn 39.1% · Draw 26.0% · San Antonio 34.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result San Antonio win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455388

Closing Odds 3.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result San Antonio win · Brooklyn 0–1 San Antonio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: USL Championship
  • Fixture: Brooklyn vs San Antonio
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 28.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Brooklyn 1.34 — San Antonio 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Championship USL Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampa Bay Rowdies 25 15 6 4 51
1 Orange County SC 16 7 7 2 28
2 Charleston Battery 25 13 4 8 43
2 San Antonio 16 6 7 3 25
3 Detroit City 25 11 8 6 41
3 New Mexico United 14 7 3 4 24
4 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 39
4 Colorado Springs 15 6 4 5 22
5 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 26 11 5 10 38
5 FC Tulsa 14 6 4 4 22
6 Louisville City 26 10 7 9 37
6 Lexington 15 6 3 6 21
7 Indy Eleven 25 9 6 10 33
7 Oakland Roots 16 5 6 5 21
8 Rhode Island 23 9 5 9 32
8 Sacramento Republic 14 5 5 4 20
9 Miami FC 26 7 9 10 30
9 Phoenix Rising 16 5 5 6 20
10 Birmingham Legion 25 4 11 10 23
10 El Paso Locomotive 15 5 4 6 19
11 Loudoun United 25 4 11 10 23
11 Las Vegas Lights 15 5 3 7 18
12 Brooklyn 25 4 6 15 18
12 Monterey Bay 16 4 3 9 15
13 Sporting JAX 26 3 5 18 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charleston Battery 25 50 31 +19 43
2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 25 45 23 +22 51
3 Louisville City 26 43 42 +1 37
4 Birmingham Legion 25 36 42 -6 23
5 Rhode Island 23 35 26 +9 32
6 Indy Eleven 25 32 31 +1 33
7 Miami FC 26 32 43 -11 30
8 Loudoun United 25 31 43 -12 23
9 Sporting JAX 26 31 69 -38 14
10 Detroit City 25 29 19 +10 41
11 Hartford Athletic 26 29 26 +3 39
12 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 26 28 26 +2 38
13 Colorado Springs 15 26 22 +4 22
14 Orange County SC 16 25 18 +7 28
15 El Paso Locomotive 15 25 25 0 19
16 Brooklyn 25 25 49 -24 18
17 Lexington 15 24 20 +4 21
18 Oakland Roots 16 24 24 0 21
19 Phoenix Rising 16 23 24 -1 20
20 Las Vegas Lights 15 23 26 -3 18
21 San Antonio 16 21 19 +2 25
22 New Mexico United 14 19 15 +4 24
23 FC Tulsa 14 18 16 +2 22
24 Sacramento Republic 14 16 14 +2 20
25 Monterey Bay 16 16 25 -9 15
USL Championship USA. USL Championship Predictions