Prediction Audit: San Lorenzo vs Huracan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Lorenzo

Aug 09, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.13

2 0.94

xG Accuracy: 55%

Huracan

The model missed the final outcome (Huracan win 0–2).

The model had projected San Lorenzo at 36.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 San Lorenzo Huracan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
San Lorenzo	36.8%	33.5%	+3.3 pp	Aligned
Draw	33.9%	35.0%	-1.1 pp	Aligned
Huracan	29.4%	31.5%	-2.2 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Huracan win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.07, 2 goals)
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned San Lorenzo; match finished Huracan
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Huracan win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Lorenzo 36.7% · Draw 33.9% · Huracan 29.4%
- xG · San Lorenzo 1.13 — Huracan 0.94
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Lorenzo 2.89 · Draw 2.77 · Huracan 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · San Lorenzo 33.5% · Draw 35.0% · Huracan 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Lorenzo 2.89 · Draw 2.77 · Huracan 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · San Lorenzo 33.5% · Draw 35.0% · Huracan 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Huracan win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 29/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2967348

Closing Odds 2.89

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Huracan win · San Lorenzo 0–2 Huracan

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Profesional Argentina
Fixture: San Lorenzo vs Huracan
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.7% · Draw 33.9% · Away 29.4%
xG (showing): San Lorenzo 1.13 — Huracan 0.94 (total xG ≈ 2.07)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.8% · Over 2.5 34.2%); BTTS No (Yes 43.0% · No 57.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 43.0% · No 57.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Independiente	16	24	20	+4	24
2	Union Santa Fe	16	24	20	+4	21
3	Boca Juniors	16	22	9	+13	30
4	Estudiantes L.P.	16	19	7	+12	31
5	Velez Sarsfield	16	18	12	+6	28
6	Lanus	16	18	15	+3	24
7	Defensa Y Justicia	16	18	21	-3	19
8	Talleres Cordoba	16	17	13	+4	26
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	17	17	0	21
10	Newells Old Boys	16	15	27	-12	15
11	San Lorenzo	16	14	14	0	22
12	Gimnasia M.	16	14	22	-8	19
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	11	21	-10	16
14	Platense	16	10	15	-5	16
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	5	12	-7	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	16	14.2	5.0	+9.2	21
2	Defensa Y Justicia	16	11.9	8.5	+3.4	19
3	Lanus	16	12.8	9.6	+3.2	24
4	Boca Juniors	16	9.2	6.0	+3.2	30
5	Union Santa Fe	16	9.1	6.2	+2.9	21
6	Deportivo Riestra	16	9.7	7.2	+2.5	11
7	Estudiantes L.P.	16	12.1	9.8	+2.3	31
8	Gimnasia M.	16	8.7	8.6	+0.1	19
9	Independiente	16	8.1	9.1	-1.0	24
10	Talleres Cordoba	16	10.4	13.0	-2.6	26
11	Newells Old Boys	16	5.1	8.3	-3.2	15
12	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	9.4	13.1	-3.7	16
13	Platense	16	6.3	10.2	-3.9	16
14	San Lorenzo	16	4.8	8.7	-3.9	22
15	Velez Sarsfield	16	6.1	10.1	-4.0	28