The model missed the final outcome (Tigre win 1–3).
The model had projected Racing Club at 60.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Racing Club Tigre ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.77) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Racing Club; match finished Tigre
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Tigre win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Racing Club 1.91 — Tigre 0.86
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tigre win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tigre win · Racing Club 1–3 Tigre
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 14.9 | 6.7 | +8.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 10.9 | 6.7 | +4.2 | 30 |
| 3 | Lanus | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 11.5 | 8.3 | +3.2 | 21 |
| 5 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 14.0 | 10.9 | +3.1 | 19 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
