Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Bray Wanderers vs Treaty United

Prediction Audit: Bray Wanderers vs Treaty United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bray Wanderers Bray Wanderers
Sep 18, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 60%
Treaty United Treaty United

AI correctly predicted the Bray Wanderers win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bray Wanderers Bray Wanderers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bray Wanderers higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bray Wanderers -29.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bray Wanderers 38.5% 68.0% -29.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 17.2% +12.4 pp Model Edge
Treaty United 31.9% 14.8% +17.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Bray Wanderers's win probability at 68.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 29.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bray Wanderers win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bray Wanderers higher (68.0% vs model 38.5%, 29.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bray Wanderers win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bray Wanderers 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Treaty United 31.9%
    • xG · Bray Wanderers 1.37 — Treaty United 1.23
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bray Wanderers 1.39 · Draw 5.49 · Treaty United 6.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Bray Wanderers 68.0% · Draw 17.2% · Treaty United 14.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bray Wanderers 1.39 · Draw 5.49 · Treaty United 6.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Bray Wanderers 68.0% · Draw 17.2% · Treaty United 14.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bray Wanderers win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8230467

Closing Odds 1.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bray Wanderers win · Bray Wanderers 2–0 Treaty United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First Division
  • Fixture: Bray Wanderers vs Treaty United
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Bray Wanderers 1.37 — Treaty United 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions