Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Cork City vs Cobh Ramblers

Prediction Audit: Cork City vs Cobh Ramblers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cork City Cork City
Sep 11, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.38
3 1.22
xG Accuracy: 52%
Cobh Ramblers Cobh Ramblers

The model missed the final outcome (Cobh Ramblers win 2–3).

The model had projected Cork City at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cork City Cobh Ramblers ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cork City higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cork City -26.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cork City 39.0% 65.2% -26.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 19.9% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Cobh Ramblers 31.5% 14.9% +16.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cork City's win probability at 65.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 26.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cobh Ramblers win 2–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Cork City; match finished Cobh Ramblers

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cork City by 26.2 percentage points (65.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cork City 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Cobh Ramblers 31.5%
    • xG · Cork City 1.38 — Cobh Ramblers 1.22
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cork City 1.45 · Draw 4.75 · Cobh Ramblers 6.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Cork City 65.2% · Draw 19.9% · Cobh Ramblers 14.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cork City 1.45 · Draw 4.75 · Cobh Ramblers 6.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Cork City 65.2% · Draw 19.9% · Cobh Ramblers 14.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cobh Ramblers win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7040356

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cobh Ramblers win · Cork City 2–3 Cobh Ramblers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First Division
  • Fixture: Cork City vs Cobh Ramblers
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Cork City 1.38 — Cobh Ramblers 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions