Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Treaty United vs Wexford

Prediction Audit: Treaty United vs Wexford Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Treaty United Treaty United
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Wexford Wexford

The model missed the final outcome (Wexford win 0–1).

The model had projected Treaty United at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Treaty United Wexford ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Wexford -2.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Treaty United 36.1% 35.7% +0.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.0 pp Aligned
Wexford 34.2% 36.7% -2.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wexford win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Treaty United; match finished Wexford

Market lesson

The full-time result was Wexford win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Treaty United 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Wexford 34.2%
    • xG · Treaty United 1.32 — Wexford 1.28
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Treaty United 2.67 · Draw 3.45 · Wexford 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Treaty United 35.7% · Draw 27.6% · Wexford 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Treaty United 2.67 · Draw 3.45 · Wexford 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Treaty United 35.7% · Draw 27.6% · Wexford 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wexford win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 30/100
Monitoring Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5928771

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wexford win · Treaty United 0–1 Wexford
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First Division
  • Fixture: Treaty United vs Wexford
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Treaty United 1.32 — Wexford 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 34 22 5 7 71
2 Bray Wanderers 34 15 8 11 53
3 UCD 34 15 7 12 52
4 Cobh Ramblers 34 14 7 13 49
5 Longford Town 34 13 9 12 48
6 Kerry 34 13 9 12 48
7 Athlone Town 34 13 9 12 48
8 Wexford 34 11 8 15 41
9 Treaty United 34 9 9 16 36
10 Finn Harps 34 6 7 21 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 34 71 34 +37 71
2 Bray Wanderers 34 65 49 +16 53
3 UCD 34 61 48 +13 52
4 Longford Town 34 47 45 +2 48
5 Cobh Ramblers 34 46 50 -4 49
6 Kerry 34 42 40 +2 48
7 Athlone Town 34 41 40 +1 48
8 Wexford 34 40 51 -11 41
9 Treaty United 34 33 52 -19 36
10 Finn Harps 34 31 68 -37 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions