Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Finn Harps vs Athlone Town

Prediction Audit: Finn Harps vs Athlone Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Finn Harps Finn Harps
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 64%
Athlone Town Athlone Town

The model missed the final outcome (Athlone Town win 0–1).

The model had projected Finn Harps at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Finn Harps Athlone Town ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Athlone Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Athlone Town -22.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Finn Harps 38.0% 21.0% +17.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Athlone Town 32.4% 54.6% -22.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Athlone Town's win probability at 54.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 22.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Athlone Town win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Finn Harps; match finished Athlone Town

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Finn Harps by 22.2 percentage points (60.2% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Finn Harps 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Athlone Town 32.4%
    • xG · Finn Harps 1.36 — Athlone Town 1.24
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Finn Harps 4.49 · Draw 3.81 · Athlone Town 1.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Finn Harps 21.1% · Draw 24.9% · Athlone Town 53.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Finn Harps 4.53 · Draw 3.90 · Athlone Town 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Finn Harps 21.0% · Draw 24.4% · Athlone Town 54.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Athlone Town win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5928735

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Athlone Town win · Finn Harps 0–1 Athlone Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First Division
  • Fixture: Finn Harps vs Athlone Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Finn Harps 1.36 — Athlone Town 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Finn Harps
  • Model: 38.0% · Implied: 21.0% · Probability edge: +17.0 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions