Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Finn Harps vs Cork City

Prediction Audit: Finn Harps vs Cork City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Finn Harps Finn Harps
Jul 31, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.16
3 1.44
xG Accuracy: 47%
Cork City Cork City

AI correctly predicted the Cork City win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cork City Cork City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cork City higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cork City -30.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Finn Harps 28.8% 8.5% +20.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.3% 19.2% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Cork City 41.9% 72.3% -30.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Cork City's win probability at 72.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 30.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cork City win 0–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cork City higher (72.3% vs model 41.9%, 30.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cork City win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Finn Harps 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Cork City 41.9%
    • xG · Finn Harps 1.16 — Cork City 1.44
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Finn Harps 11.19 · Draw 4.92 · Cork City 1.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Finn Harps 8.5% · Draw 19.2% · Cork City 72.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Finn Harps 11.19 · Draw 4.92 · Cork City 1.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Finn Harps 8.5% · Draw 19.2% · Cork City 72.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cork City win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1678331

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cork City win · Finn Harps 0–3 Cork City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Cork City; market prices Cork City instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Finn Harps 1.16 xG vs Cork City 1.44 → Cork City 41.9%
  • Market: Cork City ~72.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions