Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Longford Town vs Wexford

Prediction Audit: Longford Town vs Wexford Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Longford Town Longford Town
Jul 25, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
Wexford Wexford

The model missed the final outcome (Wexford win 1–2).

The model had projected Longford Town at 37.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Longford Town Wexford ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +2.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Longford Town 37.4% 37.5% -0.1 pp Aligned
Draw 28.9% 26.9% +2.0 pp Aligned
Wexford 33.6% 35.6% -1.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wexford win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Longford Town; match finished Wexford

Market lesson

The full-time result was Wexford win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Longford Town 37.4% · Draw 28.9% · Wexford 33.6%
    • xG · Longford Town 1.35 — Wexford 1.25
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Longford Town 2.54 · Draw 3.54 · Wexford 2.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Longford Town 37.5% · Draw 26.9% · Wexford 35.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Longford Town 2.54 · Draw 3.54 · Wexford 2.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Longford Town 37.5% · Draw 26.9% · Wexford 35.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wexford win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449473

Closing Odds 3.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wexford win · Longford Town 1–2 Wexford
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League of Ireland First Division
  • Fixture: Longford Town vs Wexford
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Longford Town 1.35 — Wexford 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions