Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / UCD vs Cork City

Prediction Audit: UCD vs Cork City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

UCD UCD
Jul 24, 2026 - 18:45
5 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 30%
Cork City Cork City

The model missed the final outcome (UCD win 5–2).

The model had projected Cork City at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cork City UCD ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Cork City higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cork City -7.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
UCD 31.2% 27.3% +3.9 pp Aligned
Draw 28.4% 24.7% +3.8 pp Aligned
Cork City 40.4% 48.1% -7.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Cork City's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was UCD win 5–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Cork City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Cork City; match finished UCD

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cork City by 7.7 percentage points (48.1% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · UCD 31.3% · Draw 28.4% · Cork City 40.3%
    • xG · UCD 1.24 — Cork City 1.36
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · UCD 3.49 · Draw 3.86 · Cork City 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · UCD 27.3% · Draw 24.7% · Cork City 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · UCD 3.49 · Draw 3.86 · Cork City 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · UCD 27.3% · Draw 24.7% · Cork City 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result UCD win · 5–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453183

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UCD win · UCD 5–2 Cork City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League of Ireland First Division
  • Fixture: UCD vs Cork City
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 40.3%
  • xG (showing): UCD 1.24 — Cork City 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming First Division Matches Track UCD Next Match Prediction Track Cork City Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for UCD & Cork City!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions