Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Bray Wanderers vs UCD

Prediction Audit: Bray Wanderers vs UCD Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bray Wanderers Bray Wanderers
Jul 10, 2026 - 18:45
6 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 20%
UCD UCD

AI correctly predicted the Bray Wanderers win.

The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bray Wanderers Bray Wanderers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bray Wanderers 38.4% 40.8% -2.4 pp Aligned
Draw 28.6% 25.6% +3.0 pp Aligned
UCD 33.0% 33.7% -0.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bray Wanderers win 6–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bray Wanderers win 6–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 10, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bray Wanderers 38.4% · Draw 28.6% · UCD 33.0%
    • xG · Bray Wanderers 1.33 — UCD 1.27
  2. Jul 10, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bray Wanderers 2.34 · Draw 3.73 · UCD 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Bray Wanderers 40.8% · Draw 25.6% · UCD 33.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 10, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bray Wanderers 2.34 · Draw 3.73 · UCD 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Bray Wanderers 40.8% · Draw 25.6% · UCD 33.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 10, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bray Wanderers win · 6–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1475177

Closing Odds 3.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bray Wanderers win · Bray Wanderers 6–0 UCD
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First Division
  • Fixture: Bray Wanderers vs UCD
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-10 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.4% · Draw 28.6% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Bray Wanderers 1.33 — UCD 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 34 22 5 7 71
2 Bray Wanderers 34 15 8 11 53
3 UCD 34 15 7 12 52
4 Cobh Ramblers 34 14 7 13 49
5 Longford Town 34 13 9 12 48
6 Kerry 34 13 9 12 48
7 Athlone Town 34 13 9 12 48
8 Wexford 34 11 8 15 41
9 Treaty United 34 9 9 16 36
10 Finn Harps 34 6 7 21 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 34 71 34 +37 71
2 Bray Wanderers 34 65 49 +16 53
3 UCD 34 61 48 +13 52
4 Longford Town 34 47 45 +2 48
5 Cobh Ramblers 34 46 50 -4 49
6 Kerry 34 42 40 +2 48
7 Athlone Town 34 41 40 +1 48
8 Wexford 34 40 51 -11 41
9 Treaty United 34 33 52 -19 36
10 Finn Harps 34 31 68 -37 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions