Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Waterford vs Dundalk

Prediction Audit: Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Waterford Waterford
Sep 11, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.86
1 1.49
xG Accuracy: 69%
Dundalk Dundalk

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Waterford at 45.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Waterford Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Dundalk -2.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Waterford 45.2% 43.2% +2.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.0% 24.9% +0.1 pp Aligned
Dundalk 29.8% 31.9% -2.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Waterford; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Waterford 45.2% · Draw 25.0% · Dundalk 29.8%
    • xG · Waterford 1.86 — Dundalk 1.49
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Waterford 2.23 · Draw 3.87 · Dundalk 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Waterford 43.2% · Draw 24.9% · Dundalk 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Waterford 2.23 · Draw 3.87 · Dundalk 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Waterford 43.2% · Draw 24.9% · Dundalk 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7040278

Closing Odds 3.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Waterford 1–1 Dundalk
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.2% · Draw 25.0% · Away 29.8%
  • xG (showing): Waterford 1.86 — Dundalk 1.49 (total xG ≈ 3.35)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 65.0% · Implied: 61.3% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +2.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.7% · No 33.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Premier Division Matches Track Waterford Next Match Prediction Track Dundalk Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Waterford & Dundalk!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions