Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers

Prediction Audit: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
Sep 11, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.60
0 1.18
xG Accuracy: 65%
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers

AI correctly predicted the St Patrick's Athl. win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: St Patrick's Athl. +1.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
St Patrick's Athl. 44.9% 43.7% +1.2 pp Aligned
Draw 28.2% 29.3% -1.2 pp Aligned
Shamrock Rovers 26.9% 26.9% -0.0 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (St Patrick's Athl. win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • St Patrick's Athl. attacking xG significantly stronger (1.60 vs 1.18)
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (St Patrick's Athl. win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 44.9% · Draw 28.2% · Shamrock Rovers 26.9%
    • xG · St Patrick's Athl. 1.60 — Shamrock Rovers 1.18
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · St Patrick's Athl. 2.20 · Draw 3.28 · Shamrock Rovers 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 43.7% · Draw 29.3% · Shamrock Rovers 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · St Patrick's Athl. 2.20 · Draw 3.28 · Shamrock Rovers 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 43.7% · Draw 29.3% · Shamrock Rovers 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result St Patrick's Athl. win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 94/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7042072

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result St Patrick's Athl. win · St Patrick's Athl. 2–0 Shamrock Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.9% · Draw 28.2% · Away 26.9%
  • xG (showing): St Patrick's Athl. 1.6 — Shamrock Rovers 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.78)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 52.6% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +9.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.8% · No 43.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions