Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Shelbourne vs Derry City

Prediction Audit: Shelbourne vs Derry City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shelbourne Shelbourne
Sep 11, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.05
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 68%
Derry City Derry City

AI correctly predicted the Derry City win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Derry City Derry City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Shelbourne higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Shelbourne -9.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shelbourne 31.1% 40.3% -9.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.9% 28.1% +1.8 pp Aligned
Derry City 39.0% 31.6% +7.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Shelbourne's win probability at 40.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.1%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Derry City win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Shelbourne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Derry City higher (48.1% vs model 39.0%, 9.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Derry City win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shelbourne 31.1% · Draw 29.9% · Derry City 38.9%
    • xG · Shelbourne 1.05 — Derry City 1.35
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shelbourne 2.35 · Draw 3.60 · Derry City 2.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Shelbourne 41.0% · Draw 26.8% · Derry City 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shelbourne 2.39 · Draw 3.42 · Derry City 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Shelbourne 40.3% · Draw 28.1% · Derry City 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Derry City win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7040223

Closing Odds 2.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Derry City win · Shelbourne 0–1 Derry City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.1% · Draw 29.9% · Away 38.9%
  • xG (showing): Shelbourne 1.05 — Derry City 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.4)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 57.0% · Implied: 49.9% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +16.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.8% · No 50.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions