Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.

Prediction Audit: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shelbourne Shelbourne
Aug 09, 2026 - 16:00
1 0.93
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 82%
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.

AI correctly predicted the St Patrick's Athl. win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Shelbourne -2.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shelbourne 24.3% 26.6% -2.3 pp Aligned
Draw 31.2% 28.9% +2.3 pp Aligned
St Patrick's Athl. 44.5% 44.5% +0.0 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (St Patrick's Athl. win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • St Patrick's Athl. attacking xG significantly stronger (1.34 vs 0.93)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (St Patrick's Athl. win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shelbourne 24.4% · Draw 31.2% · St Patrick's Athl. 44.5%
    • xG · Shelbourne 0.93 — St Patrick's Athl. 1.34
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shelbourne 3.61 · Draw 3.33 · St Patrick's Athl. 2.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Shelbourne 26.6% · Draw 28.9% · St Patrick's Athl. 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shelbourne 3.61 · Draw 3.33 · St Patrick's Athl. 2.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Shelbourne 26.6% · Draw 28.9% · St Patrick's Athl. 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result St Patrick's Athl. win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 88/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2681561

Closing Odds 3.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result St Patrick's Athl. win · Shelbourne 1–2 St Patrick's Athl.
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Shelbourne 0.93 — St Patrick's Athl. 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.27)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions