Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Derry City vs Sligo Rovers

Prediction Audit: Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Derry City Derry City
Aug 07, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.61
0 1.06
xG Accuracy: 67%
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers

AI correctly predicted the Derry City win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Derry City Derry City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Derry City higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Derry City -13.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Derry City 53.9% 67.8% -13.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.9% 19.6% +6.3 pp Model Higher
Sligo Rovers 20.2% 12.6% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Derry City's win probability at 67.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.9%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Derry City win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Derry City than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Derry City attacking xG significantly stronger (1.61 vs 1.06)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Derry City higher (67.8% vs model 53.9%, 13.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Derry City win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Derry City 53.8% · Draw 25.9% · Sligo Rovers 20.2%
    • xG · Derry City 1.61 — Sligo Rovers 1.06
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.41 · Draw 4.88 · Sligo Rovers 7.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Derry City 67.8% · Draw 19.6% · Sligo Rovers 12.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:41 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.41 · Draw 4.88 · Sligo Rovers 7.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Derry City 67.8% · Draw 19.6% · Sligo Rovers 12.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Derry City win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2681494

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Derry City win · Derry City 2–0 Sligo Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Derry City vs Sligo Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.8% · Draw 25.9% · Away 20.2%
  • xG (showing): Derry City 1.61 — Sligo Rovers 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.67)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.1% · Over 2.5 49.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions