Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers

Prediction Audit: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dundalk Dundalk
Jul 31, 2026 - 18:45
1 2.54
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 61%
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Dundalk at 64.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dundalk Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 1-1, 3-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Dundalk +1.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dundalk 64.2% 63.2% +1.1 pp Aligned
Draw 19.5% 20.3% -0.8 pp Aligned
Sligo Rovers 16.3% 16.5% -0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Dundalk; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dundalk 64.2% · Draw 19.5% · Sligo Rovers 16.3%
    • xG · Dundalk 2.54 — Sligo Rovers 1.26
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dundalk 1.52 · Draw 4.72 · Sligo Rovers 5.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Dundalk 63.2% · Draw 20.3% · Sligo Rovers 16.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dundalk 1.52 · Draw 4.72 · Sligo Rovers 5.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Dundalk 63.2% · Draw 20.3% · Sligo Rovers 16.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 66/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (88%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 94/100
Betting Confidence 69/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1677840

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dundalk 1–1 Sligo Rovers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 64.2% · Draw 19.5% · Away 16.3%
  • xG (showing): Dundalk 2.54 — Sligo Rovers 1.26 (total xG ≈ 3.8)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.9% · Over 2.5 73.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.9% · No 33.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.9% · No 33.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 31 16 8 7 56
2 Shamrock Rovers 30 16 8 6 56
3 Bohemians 30 15 8 7 53
4 Dundalk 31 10 11 10 41
5 Derry City 31 8 14 9 38
6 Galway United 30 9 10 11 37
7 Shelbourne 30 8 12 10 36
8 Waterford 31 7 13 11 34
9 Drogheda United 31 8 10 13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 31 5 8 18 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 30 53 36 +17 53
2 St Patrick's Athl. 31 51 25 +26 56
3 Dundalk 31 47 50 -3 41
4 Shamrock Rovers 30 46 29 +17 56
5 Derry City 31 44 42 +2 38
6 Waterford 31 42 51 -9 34
7 Galway United 30 41 46 -5 37
8 Shelbourne 30 38 42 -4 36
9 Drogheda United 31 37 49 -12 34
10 Sligo Rovers 31 24 53 -29 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 31 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 31 12.6 8.9 +3.7 56
3 Bohemians 30 11.5 8.2 +3.3 53
4 Derry City 31 10.8 7.8 +3.0 38
5 Shamrock Rovers 30 9.7 8.2 +1.5 56
6 Dundalk 31 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 30 10.9 13.0 -2.1 37
8 Shelbourne 30 6.2 9.8 -3.6 36
9 Drogheda United 31 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 31 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions