Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers

Prediction Audit: Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Drogheda United Drogheda United
Jul 31, 2026 - 19:00
0 2.12
0 1.13
xG Accuracy: 41%
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Drogheda United at 58.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Drogheda United Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Drogheda United considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Drogheda United +33.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Drogheda United 58.8% 25.4% +33.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 22.9% 27.2% -4.3 pp Aligned
Shamrock Rovers 18.3% 47.4% -29.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Drogheda United's win probability at 58.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.4%, a difference of 33.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Drogheda United by 33.4 percentage points (25.4% vs model 58.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Drogheda United 58.8% · Draw 22.9% · Shamrock Rovers 18.3%
    • xG · Drogheda United 2.12 — Shamrock Rovers 1.13
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Drogheda United 3.78 · Draw 3.54 · Shamrock Rovers 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Drogheda United 25.4% · Draw 27.2% · Shamrock Rovers 47.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Drogheda United 3.78 · Draw 3.54 · Shamrock Rovers 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Drogheda United 25.4% · Draw 27.2% · Shamrock Rovers 47.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 26/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (33 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1678984

Closing Odds 3.78
AI Fair Odds 1.68
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Drogheda United 0–0 Shamrock Rovers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 59.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Drogheda United; market prices Shamrock Rovers instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Drogheda United 2.12 xG vs Shamrock Rovers 1.13 → Drogheda United 58.8%
  • Market: Shamrock Rovers ~25.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions