Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk

Prediction Audit: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
Jul 24, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.76
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 77%
Dundalk Dundalk

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected St Patrick's Athl. at 53.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 St Patrick's Athletic Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices St Patrick's Athl. higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: St Patrick's Athl. -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
St Patrick's Athl. 53.0% 63.8% -10.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.1% 20.4% +4.6 pp Aligned
Dundalk 21.9% 15.8% +6.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates St Patrick's Athl.'s win probability at 63.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.0%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about St Patrick's Athl. than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned St Patrick's Athletic; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on St Patrick's Athl. by 10.8 percentage points (63.8% vs model 53.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 53.0% · Draw 25.1% · Dundalk 21.9%
    • xG · St Patrick's Athl. 1.76 — Dundalk 1.19
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 · Draw 4.69 · Dundalk 6.08
    • Implied 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 63.8% · Draw 20.4% · Dundalk 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 · Draw 4.69 · Dundalk 6.08
    • Implied 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 63.8% · Draw 20.4% · Dundalk 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453192

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Dundalk
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League of Ireland Premier Division
  • Fixture: St Patrick's Athletic vs Dundalk
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.0% · Draw 25.1% · Away 21.9%
  • xG (showing): St Patrick's Athletic 1.76 — Dundalk 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.95)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.5% · Over 2.5 56.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions