Prediction Audit: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shamrock Rovers

Jun 22, 2026 - 19:00

1 2.23

1 0.67

xG Accuracy: 65%

Derry City

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Shamrock Rovers at 66.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Shamrock Rovers Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Shamrock Rovers	66.7%	51.1%	+15.6 pp	Model Edge
Draw	21.9%	28.2%	-6.3 pp	Market Higher
Derry City	11.4%	20.7%	-9.3 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Shamrock Rovers's win probability at 66.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 51.1%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Shamrock Rovers.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Shamrock Rovers by 15.6 percentage points (51.1% vs model 66.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 22, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shamrock Rovers 66.7% · Draw 21.9% · Derry City 11.4%
- xG · Shamrock Rovers 2.23 — Derry City 0.67
Jun 22, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shamrock Rovers 1.88 · Draw 3.41 · Derry City 4.64
- Implied 1X2 · Shamrock Rovers 51.1% · Draw 28.2% · Derry City 20.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 22, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shamrock Rovers 1.88 · Draw 3.41 · Derry City 4.64
- Implied 1X2 · Shamrock Rovers 51.1% · Draw 28.2% · Derry City 20.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 22, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (65%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100

Betting Confidence 39/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1678969

Closing Odds 1.88

AI Fair Odds 1.5

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Derry City

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 66.7%
Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier Division
Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City
Kickoff: 2026-06-22 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 66.7% · Draw 21.9% · Away 11.4%
xG (showing): Shamrock Rovers 2.23 — Derry City 0.67 (total xG ≈ 2.9)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Shamrock Rovers
Model: 66.7% · Implied: 51.1% · Probability edge: +15.6 pts · Est. EV: +9.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%
Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (13.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	St Patrick's Athl.	32	17	8	7	59
2	Shamrock Rovers	31	17	8	6	59
3	Bohemians	31	16	8	7	56
4	Derry City	32	9	14	9	41
5	Dundalk	32	10	11	11	41
6	Shelbourne	32	9	13	10	40
7	Galway United	32	9	11	12	38
8	Waterford	32	7	13	12	34
9	Drogheda United	32	8	10	14	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	5	8	19	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bohemians	31	55	37	+18	56
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	52	25	+27	59
3	Shamrock Rovers	31	49	31	+18	59
4	Dundalk	32	49	53	-4	41
5	Derry City	32	45	42	+3	41
6	Waterford	32	44	54	-10	34
7	Shelbourne	32	42	45	-3	40
8	Galway United	32	42	48	-6	38
9	Drogheda United	32	38	51	-13	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	24	54	-30	23

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Waterford	32	13.0	7.8	+5.2	34
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	12.6	8.9	+3.7	59
3	Bohemians	31	11.5	8.2	+3.3	56
4	Derry City	32	10.8	7.8	+3.0	41
5	Shamrock Rovers	31	9.7	8.2	+1.5	59
6	Dundalk	32	13.0	12.1	+0.9	41
7	Galway United	32	10.9	13.0	-2.1	38
8	Shelbourne	32	6.2	9.8	-3.6	40
9	Drogheda United	32	6.4	12.3	-5.9	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	8.0	14.1	-6.1	23