Prediction Audit: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bohemians

Jun 26, 2026 - 19:00

2 2.25

0 0.99

xG Accuracy: 71%

St Patrick's Athl.

AI correctly predicted the Bohemians win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Bohemians Bohemians ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Bohemians attacking xG significantly stronger (2.25 vs 0.99)
Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bohemians win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 26, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Bohemians 2.25 — St Patrick's Athl. 0.99
Jun 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Bohemians win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending
High xG deviation from league baseline (67%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 53/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1619746

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds 1.76

CLV Pending

Final Result Bohemians win · Bohemians 2–0 St Patrick's Athl.

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 56.9%
Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier Division
Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.
Kickoff: 2026-06-26 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 56.9% · Draw 24.2% · Away 18.9%
xG (showing): Bohemians 2.25 — St Patrick's Athl. 0.99 (total xG ≈ 3.24)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Bohemians
Model: 56.9% · Implied: 37.3% · Probability edge: +19.6 pts · Est. EV: +12.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%
Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (9.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	St Patrick's Athl.	32	17	8	7	59
2	Shamrock Rovers	31	17	8	6	59
3	Bohemians	31	16	8	7	56
4	Derry City	32	9	14	9	41
5	Dundalk	32	10	11	11	41
6	Shelbourne	32	9	13	10	40
7	Galway United	32	9	11	12	38
8	Waterford	32	7	13	12	34
9	Drogheda United	32	8	10	14	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	5	8	19	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bohemians	31	55	37	+18	56
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	52	25	+27	59
3	Shamrock Rovers	31	49	31	+18	59
4	Dundalk	32	49	53	-4	41
5	Derry City	32	45	42	+3	41
6	Waterford	32	44	54	-10	34
7	Shelbourne	32	42	45	-3	40
8	Galway United	32	42	48	-6	38
9	Drogheda United	32	38	51	-13	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	24	54	-30	23

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Waterford	32	13.0	7.8	+5.2	34
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	12.6	8.9	+3.7	59
3	Bohemians	31	11.5	8.2	+3.3	56
4	Derry City	32	10.8	7.8	+3.0	41
5	Shamrock Rovers	31	9.7	8.2	+1.5	59
6	Dundalk	32	13.0	12.1	+0.9	41
7	Galway United	32	10.9	13.0	-2.1	38
8	Shelbourne	32	6.2	9.8	-3.6	40
9	Drogheda United	32	6.4	12.3	-5.9	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	8.0	14.1	-6.1	23