Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers

Prediction Audit: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Waterford Waterford
Jun 19, 2026 - 18:45
0 2.29
2 0.71
xG Accuracy: 37%
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers

The model missed the final outcome (Shamrock Rovers win 0–2).

The model had projected Waterford at 57.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Waterford Shamrock Rovers ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Waterford considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Waterford +37.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Waterford 57.9% 20.1% +37.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 24.3% 24.6% -0.4 pp Aligned
Shamrock Rovers 17.9% 55.2% -37.4 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Waterford's win probability at 57.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.1%, a difference of 37.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Shamrock Rovers win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Waterford; match finished Shamrock Rovers

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Waterford by 37.8 percentage points (20.1% vs model 57.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 19, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Waterford 57.8% · Draw 24.3% · Shamrock Rovers 17.9%
    • xG · Waterford 2.29 — Shamrock Rovers 0.71
  2. Jun 19, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Waterford 4.78 · Draw 3.90 · Shamrock Rovers 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Waterford 20.1% · Draw 24.6% · Shamrock Rovers 55.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 19, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Waterford 4.78 · Draw 3.90 · Shamrock Rovers 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Waterford 20.1% · Draw 24.6% · Shamrock Rovers 55.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 19, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shamrock Rovers win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 24/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (38 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 6/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1635477

Closing Odds 4.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Shamrock Rovers win · Waterford 0–2 Shamrock Rovers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Waterford; market prices Shamrock Rovers instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Waterford 2.29 xG vs Shamrock Rovers 0.71 → Waterford 57.9%
  • Market: Shamrock Rovers ~20.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.3% · Over 2.5 57.7%); BTTS No (Yes 46.7% · No 53.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Premier Division Matches Track Waterford Next Match Prediction Track Shamrock Rovers Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Waterford & Shamrock Rovers!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions