Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers

Prediction Audit: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
Jun 19, 2026 - 18:45
2 3.21
0 0.50
xG Accuracy: 62%
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers

AI correctly predicted the St Patrick's Athl. win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 3-0, 2-0, 4-0, 1-0, 5-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates St Patrick's Athl. considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: St Patrick's Athl. +8.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
St Patrick's Athl. 85.2% 77.2% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 11.1% 15.0% -3.9 pp Aligned
Sligo Rovers 3.7% 7.8% -4.1 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates St Patrick's Athl.'s win probability at 85.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 77.2%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (St Patrick's Athl. win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on St Patrick's Athl..

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • St Patrick's Athl. attacking xG significantly stronger (3.21 vs 0.50)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced St Patrick's Athl. more conservatively (77.2% vs model 85.2%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (St Patrick's Athl. win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 19, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 85.3% · Draw 11.1% · Sligo Rovers 3.7%
    • xG · St Patrick's Athl. 3.21 — Sligo Rovers 0.50
  2. Jun 19, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · St Patrick's Athl. 1.24 · Draw 6.39 · Sligo Rovers 12.28
    • Implied 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 77.2% · Draw 15.0% · Sligo Rovers 7.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 19, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · St Patrick's Athl. 1.24 · Draw 6.39 · Sligo Rovers 12.28
    • Implied 1X2 · St Patrick's Athl. 77.2% · Draw 15.0% · Sligo Rovers 7.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 19, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result St Patrick's Athl. win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 63/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (138%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 59/100
Betting Confidence 66/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 10:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1589833

Closing Odds 1.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result St Patrick's Athl. win · St Patrick's Athl. 2–0 Sligo Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-19 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 85.3% · Draw 11.1% · Away 3.7%
  • xG (showing): St Patrick's Athl. 3.21 — Sligo Rovers 0.5 (total xG ≈ 3.71)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 28.4% · Over 2.5 71.6%); BTTS No (Yes 38.3% · No 61.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.3% · No 61.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 3-0 (13.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions