Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers

Prediction Audit: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shelbourne Shelbourne
Jun 12, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.92
1 0.80
xG Accuracy: 93%
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers

AI correctly predicted the Shelbourne win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Shelbourne Shelbourne ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Shelbourne considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Shelbourne +27.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shelbourne 62.5% 35.3% +27.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 23.9% 30.5% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Shamrock Rovers 13.6% 34.3% -20.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Shelbourne's win probability at 62.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.3%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Shelbourne win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 3 goals materialised
  • Shelbourne attacking xG significantly stronger (1.92 vs 0.80)
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Shelbourne more conservatively (35.3% vs model 62.5%, 27.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Shelbourne win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 12, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shelbourne 62.5% · Draw 24.0% · Shamrock Rovers 13.6%
    • xG · Shelbourne 1.92 — Shamrock Rovers 0.80
  2. Jun 12, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shelbourne 2.73 · Draw 3.16 · Shamrock Rovers 2.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Shelbourne 35.3% · Draw 30.5% · Shamrock Rovers 34.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 12, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shelbourne 2.73 · Draw 3.16 · Shamrock Rovers 2.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Shelbourne 35.3% · Draw 30.5% · Shamrock Rovers 34.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shelbourne win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2484843

Closing Odds 2.73
AI Fair Odds 1.6
CLV Pending
Final Result Shelbourne win · Shelbourne 2–1 Shamrock Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 62.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-12 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 62.5% · Draw 24.0% · Away 13.6%
  • xG (showing): Shelbourne 1.92 — Shamrock Rovers 0.8 (total xG ≈ 2.72)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Shelbourne
  • Model: 62.5% · Implied: 35.3% · Probability edge: +27.2 pts · Est. EV: +16.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.3% · No 51.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions